Seasonal Forecasts
| Date | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSR | 26.2 | 16.3 | 8.4 | ||
| TSR | April 13, 2012 | 25.5 | 15.6 | 7.3 | |
| TSR | May 5, 2012 | 25.5 | 15.6 | 8.5 | |
| CWB | June 29, 2012 | 23 - 26 | - | - | |
| TSR | July 9, 2012 | 26.8 | 16.7 | 9.2 | |
| TSR | August 6, 2012 | 27.4 | 17.4 | 9.3 | |
| JMA | Actual activity | 25 | 14 | – | |
| JTWC | Actual activity | 25 | 16 | – |
During each season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclones, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agency's include the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium of the University College London and the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), of the City University of Hong Kong both of which have been issuing forecasts since the 2000 Pacific typhoon season. However, this year the GCACIC did not issue a forecast as their forecast had been overestimating how many tropical cyclones would develop during the last few seasons.
This season, the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) released an initial forecast on the number of tropical storms, typhoons and intense typhoons that would develop during April, before issuing updates during May, July and August. In its April forecast, TSR predicted that the season would see activity about 10% below the 1965-2011 average, however in its May update TSR reported that its forecast had increased slightly as a new forecast model had become available.
- National meteorological service predictions
On March 20 the Hong Kong Observatory, predicted that the typhoon season in Hong Kong would start in June or slightly earlier, with 5–8 tropical cyclones passing within 500 km (310 mi) of the territory. On May 21, the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that 1-2 tropical storms would affect Thailand during 2012. They predicted that 1 would move through Vietnam and affect Upper Thailand, during August or September, while the other one was expected to move through Southern Thailand during October or November. On August 13, PAGASA predicted that 7 — 10 tropical cyclones were likely to develop within or enter the Philippine area of responsibility between July and September, while 4 — 7 were predicted to occur between October and December. On August 31, the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau predicted that 8 more tropical cyclones could develop near Taiwan in addition to the 15 that had already developed, they also predicted that three to five of these were predicted to significantly affect the island nation.
Read more about this topic: 2012 Pacific Typhoon Season