Seasonal Forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
| NOAA | Average | 15.3 (3 – 5) |
8.8 ( – ) |
4.2 ( – ) |
| NOAA | 1995-2008 average | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| NOAA | May 21, 2009 | 13 – 18 (3 – 5) |
6 – 10 ( – ) |
2 – 5 ( – ) |
| Record high activity | 28 | 16 (Tie) | 10 | |
| Record low activity | 8 (Tie) | 3 | 0 (Tie) | |
| –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | ||||
| Actual activity | 17 (6) |
7 (2) |
4 (1) |
|
On May 21, 2009, NOAA released their forecast for the 2009 Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane seasons. They predicted a below-normal level of activity in the Eastern Pacific, with 13 to 18 named storms, of which 6 to 10 were expected to become hurricanes, and 2 to 5 expected to become major hurricanes. The forecast was based on the dissipation of a La Niña in April 2009. Sea surface temperatures were near normal around the equator makes the season an ENSO-neutral. Additionally, an El Niño was forecast to develop during the latter part of the season. Depending on the intensity of the El Niño, forecasters were unsure of whether or not it would have an effect on the overall activity in the basin. However, due to the low-activity cycle that began in 1995, the El Niño only brought the activity to a slightly above normal season.
The Central Pacific basin was also expected to be slightly below average, with three to five tropical cyclones expected to form or cross into the area. However, it was slightly more active than expected, the number of three to five was exceeded, as seven tropical cyclones moved into or formed in the Central Pacific.
Read more about this topic: 2009 Pacific Hurricane Season