Forecasting Uncertainty
A number of storms that formed in 2005 exhibited unusual behavior and challenged forecasters' ability to make correct predictions. Hurricane Vince formed farther northeast in the Atlantic than any other tropical cyclone on record at the time—only 2009's Grace has formed farther north—and then unexpectedly reached hurricane strength over waters considered too cold to support a hurricane. Hurricane Wilma became the fastest-intensifying hurricane on record, and later strengthened unexpectedly in the face of strong wind shear. Tropical Storm Delta, Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta all formed over the cold waters of the late-season eastern Atlantic, much like Hurricane Vince (though at lower latitudes). All three persisted in the face of heavy wind shear, and Epsilon managed to reach hurricane strength over waters well below the temperatures previously thought necessary for hurricane formation. Epsilon became the longest-lasting December hurricane while Zeta became the longest-lasting storm in January.
Read more about this topic: 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Famous quotes containing the word uncertainty:
“Now, since our condition accommodates things to itself, and transforms them according to itself, we no longer know things in their reality; for nothing comes to us that is not altered and falsified by our Senses. When the compass, the square, and the rule are untrue, all the calculations drawn from them, all the buildings erected by their measure, are of necessity also defective and out of plumb. The uncertainty of our senses renders uncertain everything that they produce.”
—Michel de Montaigne (1533–1592)