William M. Gray - Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

Gray developed a seasonal hurricane forecasting methodology in the 1980s and began reporting his forecasts to the public. His forecasts are widely discussed in the U.S. media. Preliminary forecasts are released before the start of the hurricane season, and the forecasts are then revised as the season progresses. The forecasts establish an expectation of the hurricane activity for the year, but are frequently inaccurate, often requiring subsequent forecasts. In 2005, for example, both the CSU team and NOAA significantly underestimated the actual hurricane totals despite issuing updated estimates as late as August of that year.