Model Interpretation Issues
In an equilibrium simulation, time is merely a label and a given year or decade does not represent the simulation of a calendar year or decade.
- Thus (by definition) a portion of a simulation labelled "2000-2030" represents 30 years, but not any particular 30 years.
- In a transient simulation, instead of a sudden change in greenhouse gases and other forcings, the forcings are changed gradually, either in an idealised way (1% CO2 increase, for example) or a more realistic fashion (one of the scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios).
If the simulation is partly of the past, observed CO2 levels may be used (and perhaps solar variation, and volcanic forcing).
The transient simulation is intended to be a physically plausible path for the climate system to follow.
Although (given natural variability) even a perfect model would not simulate the year-to-year variations seen in the real world, in an ideal model the variation from decade to decade would track that of the real world.
Read more about this topic: Transient Climate Simulation
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