Analytical Methods To Support A Trade Study
Trade studies are essentially decision-making exercises. In the FAA Systems Handbook (FAA 2004), the decision analysis matrix (aka Pugh's method) is suggested to support the activities, but this method can not support uncertainty, a mix of quantitative and qualitative information, or teams. To manage uncertainty, the authors suggest supplementing point estimates of the outcome variables for each alternative with computed or estimated uncertainty ranges. The Standard Approach to Trade Studies (Felix 2004), an INCOSE paper from 2004 suggests a similar approach. The NASA Systems Engineering Handbook (NASA 1995) suggests using multi-attribute utility theoretic (MAUT) or the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). But, these too are not good with uncertainty, mixed information and teams. The authors suggest using probability based methods to maximize utility when uncertainty predominates, but give little detail on how to approach this.
In many situations, linear programming methods like the simplex algorithm can be used but these too do not support uncertainty.
Another approach to supporting trade study information is to use the Bayesian Team Support (BTS) methods. These methods were designed to manage uncertain and evolving information. A paper describing this method is Trade Studies with Uncertain Information (Ullman 2006).
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