Track Forecast Cone
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions. The weather of a particular location can show signs of the approaching tropical cyclone, such as increasing swell, increasing cloudiness, falling barometric pressure, increasing tides, squalls, and heavy rainfall.
The forces that affect tropical cyclone steering are the higher latitude westerlies, the subtropical ridge, and the beta effect caused by changes of the coriolis force within fluids such as the atmosphere. Accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high and low pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will migrate during the life of a tropical system. Computer forecast models are used to help determine this motion as far out as five to seven days in the future.
Read more about Track Forecast Cone: History, Single Station Forecasting of A Tropical Cyclone Passage, Basics, Forecast Models, Length of Forecast Period, See Also
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“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
—Winston Churchill (1874–1965)