Efficiencies, Volumes and Prices
Since the invention of the first modern silicon solar cell in 1954, incremental improvements have resulted in modules capable of converting 12 to 18 percent of solar radiation into electricity. The performance and potential of thin-film materials are high, reaching cell efficiencies of 12–20%; prototype module efficiencies of 7–13%; and production modules in the range of 9%. Future module efficiencies are expected to climb close to the state-of-the-art of today's best cells, or to about 10–16%.
Annual manufacturing volume in the United States has grown from about 12 megawatts (MW) per year in 2003 to more than 20 MW/yr in 2004; 40–50 MW/yr production levels were expected in 2005 with continued rapid growth in the years after that.
Costs are expected to drop to below $100/m2 in volume production, and could reach even lower levels—well under $50/m2, the DOE/NREL goal for thin films—when fully optimized. At these levels, thin-film modules will cost less than fifty cents per watt to manufacture, opening new markets such as cost-effective distributed power and utility production to thin-film electricity generation.
As crystalline silicon price rose, the production cost of crystalline silicon-based solar cell module in 2008 was at some point 4–5 times higher than that of thin film modules. Thin-film producers still enjoy in 2009 price advantage as its production cost is 20% less than that of silicon modules. It is expected that the production cost of thin-film will continue dropping (40% less than silicon), as Chinese producers are now putting more resources into R&D and partnering with manufacturing equipment suppliers.
Read more about this topic: Thin Film Solar Cell
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