Rational and Explicit Methods
The whole purpose of the recitation of alternatives, is to show that there really is no alternative to forecasting. If a decisionmaker has several alternatives open to him, he will choose among them on the basis of which provides him with the most desirable outcome. Thus his decision is inevitably based on a forecast. His only choice is whether the forecast is obtained by rational and explicit methods, or by intuitive means.
The virtues of the use of rational methods are as follows:
- They can be taught and learned,
- They can be described and explained,
- They provide a procedure followable by anyone who has absorbed the necessary training, and in some cases,
- These methods are even guaranteed to produce the same forecast regardless of who uses them.
The virtue of the use of explicit methods is that they can be reviewed by others, and can be checked for consistency. Furthermore, the forecast can be reviewed at any subsequent time. Technology forecasting is not imagination.
Read more about this topic: Technology Forecasting
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