Tactical Manipulation of Runoff Voting - 2002 French Presidential Election

2002 French Presidential Election

The 2002 French presidential election is a famous example of the importance of both tactical voting and strategic nomination in runoff voting. The three main candidates were Jacque Chirac of the centre-right, Lionel Jospin of the centre-left, and the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen. However there were sixteen candidates in total.

In French presidential elections, the usual outcome is for one candidate of the centre-right and one of the centre-left to proceed to the second round. However, in 2002, the two candidates to advance to the second round were Chirac and Le Pen. Chircac then won the election but the inclusion of Le Pen in the second round was highly controversial, because of what many considered his 'extreme' political views. Le Pen was an unpopular candidate, as testified by the fact that he won only 18% of the vote in the second round. Had Jospin proceeded to the second round, as expect, it would have been a closer contest. In the first round the results were as follows:

The right

• Jacques Chirac (Rally for the Republic): 19.88%
• Jean-Marie Le Pen (National Front): 16.86%
• François Bayrou (Union for French Democracy): 6.84%
• Alain Madelin (Liberal Democracy): 3.91%
• Bruno Mégret (National Republican Movement): 2.34%
• Christine Boutin (Forum of Social Republicans): 1.19%
• Total: 51.02%

The left

• Lionel Jospin (Socialist Party): 16.18%
• Arlette Laguiller (Workers' Struggle) 5.72%
• Noël Mamère (The Greens) 5.25%
• Olivier Besancenot (Revolutionary Communist League) 4.25%
• Robert Hue (French Communist Party) 3.37%
• Christiane Taubira (Left Radical Party) 2.32%
• Daniel Gluckstein (Party of the Workers) 0.47%
• Total: 37.56%

The reason that the left had no candidate in the second round was not a shortage of voters. As can be seen above, more than 37% of voters supported left-wing candidates. The problem was that the left-wing vote was split between seven different candidates. The left could have improved its performance using strategic nomination. If even a small left-wing party had withdrawn its candidate, Jospin might have had enough votes to avoid elimination. On the other hand, even with seven different candidates, left-wing voters could have altered the first round by voting tactically.

If only about 2% more left-wing voters had practiced the tactic of compromise and voted for Jospin rather than their true favourite, then he would have survived elimination. One reason that Jospin was eliminated was that many voters assumed that he would survive to the second round and so felt free to cast a protest vote for a minor candidate, rather than vote tactically. Had Jospin survived, by tactical voting or strategic nomination, it is possible he could have won the second round and beaten Chirac.

A similar situation occurred in Louisiana, which uses a form of runoff voting called the run-off primary election. In the 1991, white supremacist David Duke secured enough votes to be admitted to the second round, in place of the incumbent governor, who would have been expected to survive. In the second round Duke lost to the more moderate Edwin Edwards. Louisiana uses a form of runoff voting called the run-off primary election.