Longer Term Cycles: Cyclical, Secular and Kondratiev
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market phases lasting 10–20 years. It is generally accepted that in early 2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a number of years. It is also generally accepted that it is in a secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60 years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession.
Read more about this topic: Stock Market Cycles
Famous quotes containing the words longer, term and/or secular:
“To die proudly when it is no longer possible to live proudly. Death freely chosen, death at the right time, brightly and cheerfully accomplished amid children and witnesses: then a real farewell is still possible, as the one who is taking leave is still there; also a real estimate of what one has wished, drawing the sum of one’s life—all in opposition to the wretched and revolting comedy that Christianity has made of the hour of death.”
—Friedrich Nietzsche (1844–1900)
“Most literature on the culture of adolescence focuses on peer pressure as a negative force. Warnings about the “wrong crowd” read like tornado alerts in parent manuals. . . . It is a relative term that means different things in different places. In Fort Wayne, for example, the wrong crowd meant hanging out with liberal Democrats. In Connecticut, it meant kids who weren’t planning to get a Ph.D. from Yale.”
—Mary Kay Blakely (20th century)
“Washington’s birthday is as close to a secular Christmas as any Christian country dare come this side of blasphemy.”
—Alistair Cooke (b. 1908)