Longer Term Cycles: Cyclical, Secular and Kondratiev
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting 1–3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market phases lasting 10–20 years. It is generally accepted that in early 2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a number of years. It is also generally accepted that it is in a secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60 years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession.
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