Deterministic Approach
The simplest way of doing this, and indeed the primary method used, is to look at best estimates.
The projections in financial analysis usually use the most likely rate of claim, the most likely investment return, the most likely rate of inflation, and so on. The projections in engineering analysis usually use both the most likely rate and the most critical rate. The result provides a point estimate - the best single estimate of what the company's current solvency position is or multiple points of estimate - depends on the problem definition. Selection and identification of parameter values are frequently a challenge to less experienced analysts.
The downside of this approach is it does not fully cover the fact that there is a whole range of possible outcomes and some are more probable and some are less.
Read more about this topic: Stochastic Modelling (insurance)
Famous quotes containing the word approach:
“Let me approach at least, and touch thy hand.
[Samson:] Not for thy life, lest fierce remembrance wake
My sudden rage to tear thee joint by joint.
At distance I forgive thee, go with that;
Bewail thy falsehood, and the pious works
It hath brought forth to make thee memorable
Among illustrious women, faithful wives:
Cherish thy hast’n’d widowhood with the gold
Of Matrimonial treason: so farewel.”
—John Milton (1608–1674)