Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx - Explanations

Explanations

While the list of "examples" of the jinx may be extensive, an individual record of 49 cover appearances by Michael Jordan did not hinder his success. Similarly, Vince Young also overcame the Sports Illustrated jinx by appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated twice during Texas' National Championship season; Emmitt Smith appeared on the cover the same week the Dallas Cowboys won Super Bowl XXVIII. In the America's Game documentary, Smith recalled that he adamantly wanted off the cover for fear of the jinx. Regardless, the Cowboys went on to win their second consecutive title of the 1990s, and fourth in team history. Tony Dorsett appeared on the cover under the title of "Heading for the Heisman" in 1976 and indeed won the Heisman Trophy that year.

The most common explanation for the perceived effect is that athletes are generally featured on the cover after an outlier performance; their future performance is likely to display regression toward the mean and be less impressive by comparison. This decline in performance would then be misperceived as being related to, or even possibly caused by, the appearance on the magazine cover.

SI addressed their own opinions on the "alleged" cover jinx in a 2002 issue that featured a black cat on the cover.

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