Space Elevator Economics - Costs of Current Systems (rockets)

Costs of Current Systems (rockets)

The costs of using a well-tested system to launch payloads are high. Prices range from about $4,300/kg for a Proton launch to about US$40,000/kg for a Pegasus launch (2004). Some systems under development, such as new members of the Long March CZ-2E, offer rates as low as $5,000/kg. Various systems that have been proposed have offered even lower rates, but have failed to get sufficient funding (Roton; Sea Dragon), remain under development, or more commonly, have financially underperformed (as in the case of the Space Shuttle). (Rockets such as the Shtil-3a, which offers costs as low as $400/kg, rarely launch but it has a comparatively small payload, and is partially subsidized by the Russian navy as part of launch exercises.)

Geosynchronous rocket launch technologies deliver half to a third as much payload to geosynchronous orbit than to LEO. The additional fuel required to achieve higher orbit severely reduces the payload size. Hence, the cost is proportionately greater. Bulk costs to geosynchronous orbit are currently about $20,000/kg for a Zenit-3SL launch.

Rocket costs have changed relatively little since the 1960s, but the market has been very flat. It is, however, quite reasonable to assume that rockets will be cheaper in the future, particularly if the market for them increases. At the same time, it is quite reasonable to assume the market will increase, particularly if rockets become cheaper.

Disposable rocket costs are significantly affected by production volumes of the solid parts of the rocket, and by launch site costs. Intuitively, since propellant is by far the largest part of a rocket, propellant costs would be expected to be significant, but it turns out that with hydrocarbon fuel these costs can be under $50 per kg of payload. Thus, the more launches a system performs the cheaper it becomes. Economies of scale mean that large production runs of rockets greatly reduce costs, as with any manufactured item, and reuseable rockets may also help to do so. Improving material and practical construction techniques for building rockets could also contribute to this. Greater use of cheap labour (globalisation) and automation is practically guaranteed to reduce manpower costs. Other costs, such as launch pad costs, can be reduced with very frequent launches.