Background
The prerequisites for the referendum included a census, which was used to define how wealth and political power will be apportioned between regions. The census was the basis of a voter registration process, which was also used for the national elections in 2010, which in turn set the stage for the referendum. The census was delayed three times. Problems included disagreements between the north and south over what they are obliged to do by the Naivasha Agreement, funding difficulties and an enormous logistical challenge. In the south, unmapped minefields from the war continue to make movement difficult, while up to five million Sudanese are nomadic. Up to two million internally displaced persons from the south remain in camps around Khartoum, in the center of the country, while refugees remain in Uganda and Kenya. A further complication results from the conflict in Darfur to the west, where civilians who have fled attacks refuse to take part in census out of fear that the government would use the results against them. Darfuri rebel groups are unanimous in their denunciation of the planned census, while the Justice and Equality Movement group has threatened to attack any census-taker.
There were disagreements between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLA/M about what proportion of voters will have to be in favour of independence (the NCP wanted at least 75% support required), whether Southern Sudanese living in the north should be allowed to vote, and the post-referendum separation process (including the division of the national debt). Modest progress was made in early September 2010, but disagreements on fundamental points remain.
It is envisaged that "popular consultations" in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, without a clear reference to referendums and/or independence, would raise concerns about the future of these regions.
According to the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (or CPA), in October 2009, the central government of Sudan and the South Sudanese government agreed that turnout would have to be at least 60% of 3.8 million voters would be necessary to validate. In this case, a simple majority vote in favour of independence would result in secession for South Sudan; should the turnout be insufficient in the first referendum, a second one will be held within sixty days.
Read more about this topic: Southern Sudanese Independence Referendum, 2011
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