Combination of Delphi and Scenarios
Scenario planning concerns planning based on the systematic examination of the future by picturing plausible and consistent images thereof. Delphi, in turn, attempts to develop systematically expert opinion consensus concerning future developments and events. It is a judgmental forecasting procedure in form of an anonymous, written, multi-stage survey process, where feedback of group opinion is provided after each round.
Numerous researchers have stressed that both approaches are best suited to be combined. Kinkel et al. (2006) recently reported on their experiences with both Delphi-scenarios and scenario-Delphis. The authors found that, due to their process similarity, the two methodologies can be easily combined. Generally speaking, the output of the different phases of the Delphi method can be used as input for the scenario method and vice versa. A combination makes a realization of the benefits of both tools possible. In practice, usually one of the two tools is considered the dominant methodology and the other one is integrated at some stage. In fact, the authors found that in either case the combination of the methodologies adds significant value to futures projects.
The variant that is most often found in practice is the integration of the Delphi method into the scenario process (see e.g. Rikkonen, 2005; von der Gracht, 2007; Transportation & Logistics 2030 – How will supply chains evolve in an energy constrained and low-carbon world; Transportation & Logistics 2030 – Transport infrastructure – Engine or hand brakes for global supply chains?; Future of Logistics – Global Scenarios 2025). Authors refer to this type as Delphi-scenario (writing), expert-based scenarios, or Delphi panel derived scenarios. Von der Gracht (2010) is a scientifically valid example of this method. Since scenario planning is “information hungry”, Delphi research can deliver valuable input for the process. There are various types of information output of Delphi that can be used as input for scenario planning. Researchers can, for example, identify relevant events or developments and, based on expert opinion, assign probabilities to them. Moreover, expert comments and arguments provide deeper insights into relationships of factors that can, in turn, be integrated into scenarios afterwards. Also, Delphi helps to identify extreme opinions and dissent among the experts. Such controversial topics are particularly suited for extreme scenarios or wildcards.
In his doctoral thesis, Rikkonen (2005) has thoroughly examined the utilization of Delphi techniques in scenario planning and, concretely, in construction of scenarios. The author comes to the conclusion that the Delphi technique has instrumental value in providing different alternative futures and the argumentation of scenarios. It is therefore recommended to use Delphi in order to make the scenarios more profound and to create confidence in scenario planning. Further benefits lie in the simplification of the scenario writing process and the deep understanding of the interrelations between the forecast items and social factors.
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