Demographic Trends and Public Opinion
On the day of the election, each member of the electorate (most adult citizens aged 20 and upwards) stamped one from the two choices of president/vice-president tickets on the ballot. Since Taiwan does not provide absentee ballots, large numbers of Taiwanese expatriates living in North America and Mainland China returned to Taiwan to vote. Typical estimates indicate that about 20,000 people travelled from North America and between 100,000 and 150,000 people travelled from Mainland China. Most analysts believe that the voters from North America would be split evenly between the two candidates, but that those from Mainland China voted overwhelmingly for Pan-Blue.
Polls indicated that Taiwan is split with about one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Blue, one-third identifying themselves as Pan-Green, and one-third as centrist. They also show very little cross-party voting with over 90% of people who identify with one party group stating that they will vote for the party.
Pan-Blue tends to do well among Mainlanders, Taiwanese aborigines, and Hakka. They also have the support of people from age 30-50, among the very rich, and very poor, and among people from northern and eastern Taiwan. Pan-Green does well among people 20-30 and people from 50-60, among people with formal education like doctors, and among people from southern Taiwan.
The margin in favor of Pan-Blue narrowed significantly after the 228 Hand-in-Hand Rally, with some polls showing Pan-Green in the lead. Taiwanese law forbids publishing any poll results, either current or historical, less than ten days before the election.
Read more about this topic: ROC Presidential Election, 2004
Famous quotes containing the words public opinion, trends, public and/or opinion:
“The history of the world is the record of the weakness, frailty and death of public opinion.”
—Samuel Butler (1835–1902)
“Thanks to recent trends in the theory of knowledge, history is now better aware of its own worth and unassailability than it formerly was. It is precisely in its inexact character, in the fact that it can never be normative and does not have to be, that its security lies.”
—Johan Huizinga (1872–1945)
“You know, Mr. Secretary, I have found out in the course of a long public life that the things I did not say never hurt me.”
—Calvin Coolidge (1872–1933)
“The first opinion that occurs to us when we are suddenly asked about something is usually not our own but only the current one pertaining to our class, position, or parentage; our own opinions seldom swim on the surface.”
—Friedrich Nietzsche (1844–1900)