Republic of China Presidential Election, 2004 - Reaction From The PRC

Reaction From The PRC

Most observers believed that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would have preferred to see Chen Shui-bian replaced by an administration less sympathetic to Taiwan independence and more in favor of Chinese reunification. However, some observers believed that the PRC cared less about who became the President of the ROC, than that this person establish economic linkages which Beijing believes would bind Taiwan irrevocably to the Mainland.

In contrast to the elections of 1996 and 2000, the PRC was quiet in this election until early November. Most observers believed that this was because the PRC has learned that any comments, especially in the form of threats, have been counterproductive. The PRC broke its silence in mid November 2003 and issued several very sharp threats that it would not stand by if Taiwan declared independence. This widely was seen as in response to two factors. In early November 2003, Chen Shui-bian took an unofficial trip to the United States in which he was much more publicly seen than before. This trip increased his popularity on Taiwan to the point where most polls indicated that he was even or slightly ahead of Lien. The trip in November 2003, also alarmed the PRC in that it appeared to convince them that the United States would do less to constrain Chen Shui-bian than they had earlier believed. In December 2003, after the United States clarified its position on Taiwan stating support for the one China policy and opposition to any referendum that would tend to move Taiwan toward independence, the PRC became relatively quiet and focused its attention on the proposed referendum rather than on the presidential race.