Project Sign - The Estimate of The Situation

The Estimate of The Situation

In the document "Estimate of the Situation," probably written in September 1947 mainly by Sneider and Loedding, Sign explained their controversial assessment of the unknowns. As Ruppelt wrote, "The situation was the UFO's; the estimate was that they were interplanetary!"

In September or October 1948, the Estimate was approved by Colonels William Clingerman and Howard McCoy (Sneider's superiors) who then submitted the document to Gen. Charles P. Cabell, chief of Air Force intelligence. In the Pentagon, opinions about UFOs were divided. Some took the extraterrestrial hypothesis seriously; others believed the flying discs were a puzzling problem while reserving final judgement; others still dismissed the entire subject as absurd. According to Ruppelt, the Estimate "drew considerable comment but no one stopped it on its way up ." Cabell, newly appointed, was presumably reluctant to take a strong stand for or against the Estimate, passing it on to then-Chief of Staff Gen. Hoyt S. Vandenberg. Citing a lack of supporting physical evidence, Vandenberg rejected the Estimate. All copies of the Estimate were ordered destroyed. A few copies were allegedly saved as keepsakes for at least half a decade or so and the Estimate has been described as the "Holy Grail of ufology."

At about the same time the Estimate was working its way up the ranks, another group was arguing against any extraterrestrial origins for the saucers. Informally led by Major Aaron J. Boggs, this group doubted that any flying saucers existed; Swords noted that his peers described Boggs as "the Pentagon's 'saucer killer'". Under Boggs' guidance, a competing document prepared by the anti-extraterrestrial group in the Directorate of Intelligence was also making the rounds in military intelligence. With input from the Office of Naval Intelligence this study argued that the flying saucers were probably real, though made by the Soviet Union. The saucers were operated so openly in U.S airspace by the Soviets probably as a method of psychological warfare "to negate U.S. confidence in atom bomb as the most advanced and decisive weapon."