Project Sign - Rejection of Estimate

Rejection of Estimate

With Gen. Hoyt S. Vandenberg's rejection of The Estimate, Ruppelt said it was clear to the Sign personnel who supported extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) that there was no support at the top. Yet Sign's personnel stuck by their conclusions. Sign continued their investigations of UFO reports, still favoring the ETH. Swords speculates that this refusal to change their approach was due to strong minority support for the ETH within the Pentagon and/or a rather mild rejection of the Estimate. In one case, for example, seeking evidence of an advanced propulsion system, Sign personnel tested the radiation levels of George Gorman's National Guard aircraft which was said to have had a "dog fight" with a flying saucer over Fargo, North Dakota on October 1, 1948. When a Geiger counter revealed evidence of radiation, Sign personnel thought they'd discovered more corroboration for their extraterrestrial hypothesis. Clingerman wrote a memo requesting a Rand Corporation study on how an interstellar spacecraft might plausibly function.

General Charles P. Cabell asked Sign for a second, non-extraterrestrial opinion of the flying saucers. Sign submitted a brief response which did not explicitly mention extraterrestrial ideas but strongly hinted at them, even citing the works of Charles Fort to argue that unusual objects had been flying in the earth's skies for decades before the Arnold encounter. A document signed by Sneider, dated December 20, 1948 but written earlier, has been called the "Ghost of the Estimate" since it echoes many of the same ideas explained in the lost Estimate of the Situation.

Sign's continued devotion to the interplanetary explanation led to a debate at the National Bureau of Standards in November, 1948 where the competing hypotheses were represented by Sneider and Boggs (other personnel attended, but their identities are uncertain). Ultimately, Boggs and the anti-extraterrestrial faction were victorious.

The rejection of the Estimate quickly took its toll on Project Sign and supporters of the ETH. As Ruppelt wrote, "More and more work was being pushed off onto the other investigative organization that was helping ATIC. The kickback on the Top Secret Estimate of the Situation was beginning to dampen a lot of enthusiasms. It was definitely a bear market for UFOs."