Assessment
Assessing probabilistic forecasts is more complex than assessing deterministic forecasts. If an ensemble-based approach is being used, the individual ensemble members need first to be combined and expressed in terms of a probability distribution. There exist probabilistic (proper) scoring rules such as the continuous-ranked probability score for evaluating probabilistic forecasts. One example of such a rule is the Brier score.
Read more about this topic: Probabilistic Forecasting
Famous quotes containing the word assessment:
“The first year was critical to my assessment of myself as a person. It forced me to realize that, like being married, having children is not an end in itself. You don’t at last arrive at being a parent and suddenly feel satisfied and joyful. It is a constantly reopening adventure.”
—Anonymous Mother. From the Boston Women’s Health Book Collection. Quoted in The Joys of Having a Child, by Bill and Gloria Adler (1993)