Probabilistic Causation - Closed Versus Open Systems

Closed Versus Open Systems

In a closed system the data may suggest that cause A * B precedes effect C in a defined interval of time τ. This relationship can determine causality with confidence bounded by τ. However, this same relationship may not be deterministic with confidence in an open system where uncontrolled factors may affect the result.

An example would be a system of A, B and C, where A, B and C are known. Characteristics are below and limited to a given time (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours):

^A * ^ B => ^ C (99.9999998027%)

A * ^B => ^C (99.9999998027%)

^A * B => ^C (99.9999998027%)

A * B => C (99.9999998027%)

One can reasonably claim, within 6 Standard Deviations, that A * B cause C given the time boundary (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours) IF And Only IF A, B and C are the only parts of the system in question. Any result outside of this may be considered a deviation.

Read more about this topic:  Probabilistic Causation

Famous quotes containing the words closed, open and/or systems:

    No domain of nature is quite closed to man at all times.
    Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862)

    The first principle of a free society is an untrammeled flow of words in an open forum.
    Adlai Stevenson (1900–1965)

    I am beginning to suspect all elaborate and special systems of education. They seem to me to be built up on the supposition that every child is a kind of idiot who must be taught to think.
    Anne Sullivan (1866–1936)