Closed Versus Open Systems
In a closed system the data may suggest that cause A * B precedes effect C in a defined interval of time τ. This relationship can determine causality with confidence bounded by τ. However, this same relationship may not be deterministic with confidence in an open system where uncontrolled factors may affect the result.
An example would be a system of A, B and C, where A, B and C are known. Characteristics are below and limited to a given time (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours):
^A * ^ B => ^ C (99.9999998027%)
A * ^B => ^C (99.9999998027%)
^A * B => ^C (99.9999998027%)
A * B => C (99.9999998027%)
One can reasonably claim, within 6 Standard Deviations, that A * B cause C given the time boundary (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours) IF And Only IF A, B and C are the only parts of the system in question. Any result outside of this may be considered a deviation.
Read more about this topic: Probabilistic Causation
Famous quotes containing the words closed, open and/or systems:
“We are closed in, and the key is turned
On our uncertainty;”
—William Butler Yeats (1865–1939)
“A politician is a statesman who approaches every question with an open mouth.”
—Adlai Stevenson (1900–1965)
“People stress the violence. That’s the smallest part of it. Football is brutal only from a distance. In the middle of it there’s a calm, a tranquility. The players accept pain. There’s a sense of order even at the end of a running play with bodies stewn everywhere. When the systems interlock, there’s a satisfaction to the game that can’t be duplicated. There’s a harmony.”
—Don Delillo (b. 1926)