Closed Versus Open Systems
In a closed system the data may suggest that cause A * B precedes effect C in a defined interval of time τ. This relationship can determine causality with confidence bounded by τ. However, this same relationship may not be deterministic with confidence in an open system where uncontrolled factors may affect the result.
An example would be a system of A, B and C, where A, B and C are known. Characteristics are below and limited to a given time (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours):
^A * ^ B => ^ C (99.9999998027%)
A * ^B => ^C (99.9999998027%)
^A * B => ^C (99.9999998027%)
A * B => C (99.9999998027%)
One can reasonably claim, within 6 Standard Deviations, that A * B cause C given the time boundary (such as 50 ms, or 50 hours) IF And Only IF A, B and C are the only parts of the system in question. Any result outside of this may be considered a deviation.
Read more about this topic: Probabilistic Causation
Famous quotes containing the words closed, open and/or systems:
“Thus piteously Love closed what he begat:
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These two were rapid falcons in a snare,
Condemned to do the flitting of the bat.”
—George Meredith (1828–1909)
“I think, for the rest of my life, I shall refrain from looking up things. It is the most ravenous time-snatcher I know. You pull one book from the shelf, which carries a hint or a reference that sends you posthaste to another book, and that to successive others. It is incredible, the number of books you hopefully open and disappointedly close, only to take down another with the same result.”
—Carolyn Wells (1862–1942)
“Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be:
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And thou, O Lord, art more than they.”
—Alfred Tennyson (1809–1892)