Peak Uranium - Uranium Demand

Uranium Demand

The world demand for uranium in 1996 was over 68 kilotonnes (150×10^6 lb) per year, and that number is expected to increase to between 80 kilotonnes (180×10^6 lb) and 100 kilotonnes (220×10^6 lb) per year by 2025 due to the number of new nuclear power plants coming on line.

According to Cameco Corporation, the demand for uranium is directly linked to the amount of electricity generated by nuclear power plants. Reactor capacity is growing slowly, reactors are being run more productively, with higher capacity factors, and reactor power levels. Improved reactor performance translates into greater uranium consumption.

Nuclear power stations of 1000 megawatt electrical generation capacity require around 200 tonnes (440×10^3 lb) of uranium per year. For example, the United States has 103 operating reactors with an average generation capacity of 950 MWe demanded over 22 kilotonnes (49×10^6 lb) of uranium in 2005. As the number of nuclear power plants increase, so does the demand for uranium.

Another factor to consider is population growth. Electricity consumption is determined in part by economic and population growth. According to data from the CIA's World Factbook, the world population currently (July 2012 est.) is more than 7 Billion and it is increasing by 1.167% per year. This means a growth of about 211,000 persons every day. According to the UN, by 2050 it is estimated that the Earth's population will be 9.07 billion. That's 37% increase from today. 62% of the people will live in Africa, Southern Asia and Eastern Asia. The largest energy-consuming class in the history of earth is being produced in world’s most populated countries, China and India. Both plan massive nuclear energy expansion programs. China intends to build 32 nuclear plants with 40,000 MWe capacity by 2020. According to the World Nuclear Association, India plans on bringing 20,000 MWe nuclear capacity on line by 2020, and aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050. The World Nuclear Association believes nuclear energy could reduce the fossil fuel burden of generating the new demand for electricity.

As more fossil fuels are used to supply the growing energy needs of an increasing population, the more greenhouse gases are produced. Some proponents of nuclear power believe that building more nuclear power plants can reduce greenhouse emissions. For example, the Swedish utility Vattenfall studied the full life cycle emissions of different ways to produce electricity, and concluded that nuclear power produced 3.3 g/kWh of carbon dioxide, compared to 400.0 for natural gas and 700.0 for coal. However, more recent studies have shown that coal produces closer to 1000 g/kWh of carbon dioxide, and that nuclear powers emissions are comparable to conventional renewable energy sources, with both being in the range of ~16 g/kWh.

As world oil is expected to peak early this century, alternatives for gasoline and diesel for powering transportation are being sought. One of the promising solutions are hybrid and electric vehicles. Some experts believe that these vehicles will require 160 new power plants. Others believe none. The true figure lies somewhere between.

As countries are not able to supply their own needs economically from their own mines have resorted to importing better grades of uranium from elsewhere. For example, owners of U.S. nuclear power reactors bought 67 million pounds (30 kt) of uranium in 2006. Out of that 84%, or 56 million pounds (25 kt), were imported from foreign suppliers, according to the Energy Department.