Hubbert, 1956
In 1956, Hubbert used an estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 850 trillion cubic feet (24,000 km3) (an amount postulated by geologist Wallace Pratt) to predict a US production peak of about 14 trillion cubic feet (400 km3) per year to occur "approximately 1970". Pratt, in his EUR estimate (p. 96), explicitly included what he called the "phenomenal discovery rate" that the industry was then experiencing in the offshore Gulf of Mexico.
US gas production reached a peak in 1973 at about 24.1 trillion cubic feet (680 km3), and declined through 1976. But even greater new discoveries in the offshore Gulf of Mexico than anticipated, and development of "unconventional reserves", proved Pratt's EUR estimate to be too low as US gas production rose again.
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