Panama Canal - The Future

The Future

As demand is rising for efficient global shipping of goods, the canal is positioned to be a significant feature of world shipping for the foreseeable future. However, changes in shipping patterns—particularly the increasing numbers of larger-than-Panamax ships—will necessitate changes to the canal if it is to retain a significant market share. In 2006 it was anticipated that by 2011, 37% of the world's container ships would be too large for the present canal, and hence a failure to expand would result in a significant loss of market share. The maximum sustainable capacity of the present canal, given some relatively minor improvement work, is estimated at 330–40 million PC/UMS tons per year; it was anticipated that this capacity would be reached between 2009 and 2012. Close to 50% of transiting vessels were already using the full width of the locks.

An enlargement scheme similar to the 1939 Third Lock Scheme, to allow for a greater number of transits and the ability to handle larger ships, has been under consideration for some time, has been approved by the government of Panama, and is in progress, with completion expected in 2014. The cost is estimated at US$5.25 billion, and the project will double the canal's capacity, allowing more traffic and the passage of longer and wider ships. This proposal to expand the canal was approved in a national referendum by approximately 80% on October 22, 2006.