Old Farmer's Almanac - Weather Predictions

Weather Predictions

While The Old Farmer's Almanac has always looked to Thomas's original formula to help with predictions, its forecasting methods have been refined over the years. Today, they also employ state-of-the-art technology and the use of three scientific disciplines: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. Weather trends and events are predicted by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.

Forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and updated every ten years. The most recent climatological normals tabulation spans the period 1971 through 2000.

Forecasts are prepared as much as 18 months in advance and presented in each edition by region. There are 16 regions for the U.S. and five for Canada in their respective country editions. Four additional regions are available on the Almanac's Web site, Almanac.com. These include Hawaii and Alaska for the U.S. and the Yukon Territory and Northwest Territories for Canada.

In its bicentennial edition, the Almanac stated, "neither we nor anyone else has as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict weather with anything resembling total accuracy." The Almanac claims that its long-range weather forecasts are 80% accurate. One disputing analysis concluded that these forecasts are at most 2% more accurate than random guesses. Pennsylvania State University meteorologist Paul Knight notes that the competing "Farmers' Almanac" (published annually in Lewiston, Maine) makes forecasts which are so vague that it is difficult to assess whether they are accurate or not.

In 2008, the Almanac stated that the earth had entered a global cooling period that would probably last decades. The journal based its prediction on sunspot cycles. Said contributing meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo, "Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future."