Oil Shale Economics - Break-even Price of Oil

Break-even Price of Oil

The various attempts to develop oil shale deposits have succeeded only when the cost of shale-oil production in a given region comes in below the price of crude oil or its other substitutes (break-even price). The United States Department of Energy estimates that the ex-situ processing would be economic at sustained average world oil prices above US$$54 per barrel and in-situ processing would be economic at prices above $35 per barrel. These estimates assume a return rate of 15%. The International Energy Agency estimates, based on the various pilot projects, that investment and operating costs would be similar to those of Canadian oil sands, that means would be economic at prices above $60 per barrel at current costs. This figure does not account carbon pricing, which will add additional cost. According to the New Policies Scenario introduced in its World Energy Outlook 2010, a price of $50 per tonne of emitted CO₂, expected by 2035, will add additional $7.50 per barrel cost of shale oil.

According to a survey conducted by the RAND Corporation, the cost of producing a barrel of oil at a surface retorting complex in the United States (comprising a mine, retorting plant, upgrading plant, supporting utilities, and spent shale reclamation), would range between 70–95 ($440–600/m3, adjusted to 2005 values). This estimate considers varying levels of kerogen quality and extraction efficiency. In order for the operation to be profitable, the price of crude oil would need to remain above these levels. The analysis also discusses the expectation that processing costs would drop after the complex was established. The hypothetical unit would see a cost reduction of 35–70% after its first 500 million barrels (79×10^6 m3) were produced. Assuming an increase in output of 25 thousand barrels per day (4.0×10^3 m3/d) during each year after the start of commercial production, the costs would then be expected to decline to $35–48 per barrel ($220–300/m3) within 12 years. After achieving the milestone of 1 billion barrels (160×10^6 m3), its costs would decline further to $30–40 per barrel ($190–250/m3).

In 2005, Royal Dutch Shell announced that its in situ extraction technology could become competitive at prices over $30 per barrel ($190/m3). However, Shell reported in 2007 that the cost of creating an underground freeze wall to contain groundwater contamination had significantly escalated. As the commercial scale production by Shell does not foreseen until 2025, the real price needed to make production economic remains unclear.

At full-scale production, the production costs for one barrel of light crude oil of the Australia's Stuart plant were projected to be in the range of $11.3 to $12.4 per barrel, including capital costs and operation costs over a projected 30-year lifetime. However, the project has been suspended due to environmental concerns.

The project of a new Alberta Taciuk Processor which was planned by VKG Oil, was estimated to achieve break-even financial feasibility operating at 30% capacity, assuming a crude oil price of $21 per barrel or higher. At 50% utilization, the project was expected to be economic at a price of $18 per barrel, while at full capacity, it could be economic at a price of $13 per barrel. However, instead of Alberta Taciuk Processor VKG proceeded with a Petroter retort which production price level is not disclosed. Production costs in China have been reported to be as low as less than $25 per barrel; however, there is no recent confirmation of this figure.