Nevada Democratic Caucuses, 2008 - Pre-Caucus Events, Predictions, and Polls

Pre-Caucus Events, Predictions, and Polls

The date of the Nevada Democratic Caucuses were moved from a later date to January 19, 2008. Analysts from CNN believe that this occurred because of many factors, such as the growing West, a large Hispanic population, a heavily unionized work force, the influence of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and the idea that earlier caucuses increased voter participation. In addition, Democrats in the working class hold sway over liberal activists; this would allow candidates to discuss practical issues and policy details.

After Barack Obama's win in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses and Hillary Rodham Clinton's surprise comeback win at the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, the Nevada Democratic Caucuses were seen as a potential tie-breaker. A victory in the Nevada Democratic Caucus would provide a candidate with momentum heading into Super Tuesday. In addition, the Nevada Democratic Caucuses were seen as a test of the organizing abilities of its unions and the growing influence of the state's Latino community, which makes up more than 20 percent of the population.

On January 9, 2008, Obama received his first key national labor endorsement from leaders of the 450,000-member UNITE HERE union. This endorsement was made on behalf of Nevada's largest union, the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union, Local 226. As a result, Obama received a huge boost in support from the Latino population.

A pre-caucus opinion poll conducted by the Las Vegas Review-Journal on January 18, 2008, showed that Hillary Rodham Clinton was leading with 41 percent of the vote. Barack Obama had 32 percent of the vote, and John Edwards had 14 percent. Another poll by the American Research Group five days before the caucuses on January 14, 2008, showed that Clinton was leading with 35 percent, Obama had 32 percent, and Edwards at 25 percent. These polls only showed the results of the top-tier candidates who were viable to win the caucuses.