Multiple Myeloma - Prognosis

Prognosis

With high-dose therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation, the median survival has been estimated in 2003 to be approximately 4.5 years, compared to a median of approximately 3.5 years with "standard" therapy.

The International Staging System can help to predict survival, with a median survival (in 2005) of 62 months for stage 1 disease, 45 months for stage 2 disease, and 29 months for stage 3 disease.

The prognoses for patients with multiple myeloma, as those with other diseases, are not the same for everyone. The average age of onset is 70 years. Older patients often are experiencing other serious diseases, which affect survival. Younger patients might have much longer survival rates.

Some myeloma centers now employ genetic testing, which they call a “gene array.” By examining DNA oncologists can determine if patients are high risk or low risk of the cancer returning quickly following treatment.

Cytogenetic analysis of myeloma cells may be of prognostic value, with deletion of chromosome 13, non-hyperdiploidy and the balanced translocations t(4;14) and t(14;16) conferring a poorer prognosis. The 11q13 and 6p21 cytogenetic abnormalities are associated with a better prognosis.

Prognostic markers such as these are always generated by retrospective analyses, and it is likely that new treatment developments will improve the outlook for those with traditionally "poor-risk" disease.

SNP array karyotyping can detect copy number alterations of prognostic significance that may be missed by a targeted FISH panel. In MM, lack of a proliferative clone makes conventional cytogenetics informative in only ~30% of cases.

1. Virtual karyotyping identified chromosomal abnormalities in 98% of MM cases
2. del(12p13.31) is an independent adverse marker
3. amp(5q31.1) is a favorable marker
4. The prognostic impact of amp(5q31.1) over-rides that of hyperdiploidy and also identifies patients who greatly benefit from high-dose therapy.

Array-based karyotyping cannot detect balanced translocations, such as t(4;14) seen in ~15% of MM. Therefore, FISH for this translocation should also be performed if using SNP arrays to detect genome-wide copy number alterations of prognostic significance in MM.

Some multiple myeloma cell lines over produce TGF-β which inhibits T-cell activity. Bacteremia is a common complication of multiple myeloma, particularly among individuals with low IgM and IgA levels. Osteomyelitis has been reported in three individuals with multiple myeloma.