Multi-effect Protocol - Protocol Contents - Implementation and Results

Implementation and Results

In the EU, the Gothenburg protocol is implemented through the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) directive.

Of all the countries that ratified the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol, most are expected to meet their obligations. Progress towards reducing sulphur emissions was greater than the Protocol commitments due to a widespread European shift from coal to natural gas as an industrial fuel in the 1970s and 1980s. As a result, the acidification of forests and lakes was halted in large parts of Europe. Reduction of NO_x emissions from traffic has less than originally expected. The Protocol required only modest ammonia emission reductions and therefore in most parts of Europe, excess nitrogen deposition will be reduced only by a small percentage.

It is predicted that the implementation of the Protocol in Europe will reduce sulphur emissions there by at least 63%, NO_x emissions by 41%, VOC emissions by 40% and ammonia emissions by 17% compared to levels in 1990. In addition, Protocol implementation in Europe will:

• reduce the area of excessive acidification from 93 million hectares in 1990 to 15 million hectares;
• reduce the area of excessive eutrophication from 165 million hectares in 1990 to 108 million hectares, and;
• reduce the number of days with excessive ozone levels by 50%.

As a result, it is estimated that human life-years lost as a result of the chronic effects of ozone exposure will be about 2,300,000 lower in 2010 than in 1990. In addition, there will be approximately 47,500 fewer premature deaths resulting from ozone and particulate matter in the air. Furthermore, the amount of vegetation exposed to excessive ozone levels will be reduced by 44% from 1990 levels.

However, for large parts of Europe, human exposure to particulate matter and ozone will remain higher than recommended by the World Health Organization. In the Benelux, the Po-area, Russia and Ukraine, the health risks will remain higher than for the rest of Europe. The East European countries that did not ratify the Protocol are expected to suffer from increasing air pollution. Because of the great potential for low-cost emission reduction measures in this region, increased related policy efforts are underway for countries such as Russia and Ukraine. Abatement of emissions from shipping and ambitious climate policy measures, offers possibilities to reduce air pollution in EU countries at relatively low costs. Additional concerns include the negative effects from the combustion of biomass and biodiesel on air quality/