Model Output Statistics
Model Output Statistics (MOS) is an omnipresent statistical technique that forms the backbone of modern weather forecasting. The technique pioneered in the 1960s and early 1970s is used to post-process output from numerical weather forecast models. Generally speaking, numerical weather forecast models do an excellent job of forecasting upper air patterns but are too crude to account for local variations in surface weather. Pure statistical models, on the other hand, are excellent at forecasting idiosyncrasies in local weather but are usually worthless beyond about six hours. The MOS technique combines the two, using complex numerical forecasts based on the physics of the atmosphere to forecast the large-scale weather patterns and then using regression equations in statistical post-processing to clarify surface weather details. The accuracy is generally far better than either a pure statistical model or a pure numerical model (NWP).
Read more about Model Output Statistics: Definition, History, Leading MOS Scientists, Current Operational Forecasts
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