Missouri Bellwether - Possible Causes

Possible Causes

Location and demographics are most often cited as the cause of Missouri's bellwether status. In 2004, the Chicago Tribune called Missouri the "bellwether state that almost exactly mirrors the demographic, economic and political makeup of the nation." A microcosm of the country's current political makeup, Missouri has its two Blue "coasts" of St. Louis and Kansas City with Red middle and southern areas (see Red states and blue states).

Since 1980, the mean center of U.S. population of the United States (which has been moving steadily westward) has been in Missouri (currently in Plano, Missouri). Missouri is in the center of the country, distant from the coast and the national borders. It shares a border with two Southern states, three Plains states, two Midwestern states, and one other Border state.

Missouri has a mix of urban, suburban and rural populations. St. Louis considers itself the furthest west of the eastern cities while Kansas City considers itself the furthest east of the western cities.

Missouri was a border state in the American Civil War. After the state legislature voted to secede, it was represented by competing factions in both the Confederate and Union governments. Missourians fought on both sides of the conflict, and the state was the site of repeated military clashes throughout the war.