Continued Bellwether Status?
Missouri's continuing status as a bellwether has been questioned. One of the more important national phenomena that has not had the same impact in Missouri as in the rest of the country is the influx of immigrants, particularly Latinos. Analysts and journalists in recent times have pointed to states like Ohio, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and California as more accurate political and cultural bellwethers. As for Missouri, Slate columnist Chris Suellentrop has said that the state "isn't so much a bellwether as it is a weathervane: It doesn't swing the country, the country swings it..." and that Missouri is a better indicator of whether a trend is mainstream than of what the next new trend will be. In 2008 however, Missouri very narrowly voted for Republican John McCain despite a 53% winning percentage victory for Democrat Barack Obama and nationwide dissatisfaction with the Bush administration. Missouri voting for Mitt Romney in 2012 has caused further questions over its bellwether status. As a result, its accuracy rate for the last 28 presidential elections is now 89.3%. Ohio has about the same record of voting for the winning candidate in missing twice; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1896 except for 1944 and 1960, with no Republican ever winning the White House without Ohio. Nevada has been carried by the winner in every presidential election since 1912, except just once in 1976. Also, New Mexico has voted for the winner of every presidential election from its statehood in 1912 except in the 1976 and 2000 elections; however, the New Mexicans gave their electoral votes to the popular vote winner Al Gore in 2000.
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