Meteorological History of Hurricane Noel - Formation

Formation

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 16. It tracked westward, and by October 22 the wave was approaching the Lesser Antilles with cyclonic turning and scattered convection; at the same time, an upper-level low pressure area was located to the north of the Leeward Islands. The interaction between the wave and the low produced a large mass of disturbed weather on October 23, and by the next day the system contained a well-defined low-level circulation about 100 miles (160 km) east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Despite unfavorable wind shear, convection increased as barometric pressures dropped in association with the organizing system.

The low pressure area produces heavy rainfall while tracking west-southwestward through the northern Leeward Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, and its convection initially remained disorganized. The thunderstorm activity organized further, with an area of thunderstorm activity to the east of the partially exposed circulation; based on its organization, the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Sixteen early on October 28 while located about 195 miles (310 km) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Initially, the depression was forecast to track west-northwestward, brushing southwestern Haiti before moving ashore along south-central Cuba.

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