Metagame Analysis - Method - Scenario Development

Scenario Development

The possible outcomes of the game, based on the combination of options, are called scenarios. In theory, a game with N stakeholders s₁, ..., s_N who have Oi options (i = 1, ..., N), there are O₁×...×O_N possible outcomes. As the number of stakeholders and the number of the options they have increase, the number of scenarios will increase steeply due to a combinatorial explosion. Conversely, the dependencies between options will reduce the number of scenarios, because they rule out those containing logically or physically impossible combinations of options.

If the set of feasible scenarios is too large to be analysed in full, some combinations may be eliminated because the analyst judges them to be not worth considering. When doing so, the analyst should take care to preserve these particular types of scenarios (Howard 1989, pp. 243 ff):

• The Status Quo, representing the future as it was previously expected.
• The present scenario, which may differ from the Status Quo as it incorporates the intentions that are expressed by the stakeholders to change their plans; the Status Quo necessarily remains the same, but the present scenario may change as stakeholders interact and influence each others plans.
• The positions of different stakeholders, being the scenarios they would like others to agree to. Similar to the present scenario, positions may change through interaction.
• Compromises between two stakeholders, defined as scenarios that, while not the position of either, are preferred by both to the other’s position. A compromise does not necessarily have to involve all stakeholders.
• Conflict points, defined as scenarios that stakeholders might move to in trying to force others to accept their positions.