Median Voter Theorem - Reality

Reality

While the median voter theorem makes clear predictions, how do these predictions match reality? Several major pieces of economic literature seem to point to evidence that strongly supports the median voter theorem. For example, Holcombe analyzes the Bowen equilibrium level of education expenditures for 257 Michigan school districts and finds that the actual expenditure levels are only about 3% away from the estimated level in the average district. This study suggests that the median voter theorem provides an explanation for what we empirically see in reality, at least for education expenditures.

However, it is not just isolated cases such as this that suggest the median voter theorem is valid. In fact, in regards to the rise in government redistribution programs over the past few decades, the theorem seems powerfully explanatory. Thomas Husted and Lawrence Kenny examined growth of redistribution programs particularly between the years of 1950 and 1988. Tom Rice also writes that voters with the median income will take advantage of their majority status by electing politicians that will tax those who are earning more than the median voter, and then redistribute this to those who are below the median. More specifically, Rice demonstrates that if a systematic closing of the gap between people of the median and mean income levels in the United States could be shown, more credibility can be given to the median voter theorem. Up until the mid-1960s, Rice says the gap between median and mean income levels tightened. Three main forces served to tighten this gap. First, the strength of the Democratic Party in Congress in the decades leading up to the 1960s, as Democrats are more disposed to redistribution. Second, increased turnout to the polls, just as Husted and Kenny postulated, tightened the gap because an increase in voters means more individuals of lower income are voting. Finally, since unemployment, which causes median income families to fall below the median income, compared to after the 1960s, was relatively low, this tightened the gap.