Choice Under Uncertainty
In the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern, four axioms together imply that individuals act in situations of risk as if they maximize the expected value of a utility function. One of the axioms is a version of the IIA axiom:
- If, then for any and ,
where p is a probability and means that M is preferred over L. This axiom says that if one outcome (or lottery ticket) L is considered to be not as good as another (M), then having a chance with probability p of receiving L rather than N is considered to be not as good as having a chance with probability p of receiving M rather than N.
Read more about this topic: Local Independence Of Irrelevant Alternatives
Famous quotes containing the words choice and/or uncertainty:
“Stupid or smart, there wasn’t much choice about what was going to happen to me ... Growing up was like falling into a hole.... I might not quit school, not while Mama had any say in the matter, but what difference would that make? What was I going to do in five years? Work in the textile mill? Join Mama at the diner? It all looked bleak to me. No wonder people got crazy as they grew up.”
—Dorothy Allison (b. 1953)
“I think the worst thing this nation could do for humanity would be to leave any uncertainty as to our will, our purpose and our capacity to carry out our purpose.”
—Hubert H. Humphrey (1911–1978)