Timeline
- October 1 - Long range numerical weather models show a deep low affecting the Great Lakes basin
- October 6 - Possibility of LES cited by NWS offices, numerical models mainly see rain
- October 7 - Chance of lake effect rain included in Buffalo area forecast, with a slight possibility of flurries above 1,300 ft (400 m)
- October 9 - Chance of wet flurries mentioned at lower levels, NWS sees possibility of accumulating snows at higher elevations
- October 10 - Frontal zone develops over northern Minnesota - southern Manitoba.
- October 11 - Two low pressure systems form and merge over northern Michigan before racing north
- 11:35 PM - Cold front passes Port Colborne reporting station in Ontario
- October 12 - Low pressure system deepens to 980mb and becomes centered 140 km west of Attawapiskat
- 12:46 AM - Cold front passes Buffalo Airport reporting station
- 3:30 AM - Squall begins to form over Lake Erie
- 3:54 AM - Lake effect rain first reported at the Buffalo Airport
- 12:14 PM - Small hail and ice pellets reported at Buffalo Airport, temperature 41°F (5°C)
- 1:00 PM - Temperature falls to 37°F (3°C) at Buffalo Airport
- 1:38 PM - Temperature falls to 36°F (2°C) at Buffalo Airport
- 1:51 PM - Snow-rain mix reported at Buffalo Airport
- 2:36 PM - NWS Buffalo issues LES warning
- 2:54 PM - Radar detects first 20,000 ft (6 km) echo top, first lightning detected as well
- 4:54 PM - Snow begins to accumulate as snowfall rates reach 1.18 in (3 cm) per hour, heavy thunderstorms reported
- 7:30 PM - Buffalo Airport grounds all flights due to weather conditions
- 8:00 PM - NWS Buffalo begins to receive numerous reports of trees and power lines toppling after 3 in (7 cm) of snow accumulates
- 9:15 PM - Ontario Provincial Police close the Niagara section of the QEW
- 10:25 PM - New York State Thruway closes at Interstate 190, the Niagara Thruway
- 10:25 PM - Peace Bridge border crossing is closed
- October 13 - Low pressure system sinks south and becomes stationary over Pagwa River
- Many schools and community centers are opened to the public as evacuation centers for people who have lost power and heat due to the storm
- 2:00 AM - Buffalo Airport reports 10.0 in (25.4 cm) of snow accumulation
- 8:00 AM - Buffalo Airport reports 22.0 in (55.9 cm) of snow accumulation
- 10:30 AM - Amherst, New York reports 24 in (60.96 cm) of snow accumulations, breaking an all time record
- October 15 - Remaining snow fully melts
- October 23 - Most schools in the affected areas reopen
- October 24 - Erie, Genesee, Orleans and Niagara Counties in western New York are declared a "major disaster" area by President George W. Bush
- October 26 - Schools in Amherst reopen for the first time since the storm began
- October 27 - Schools in Hamburg reopen after repairs are finished to buildings affected by power loss and building damages
Read more about this topic: Lake Storm "Aphid"