History
On October 6, 2006, the first concerns of a possible lake effect snow (LES) event were raised, as medium and long range numerical weather models began to indicate conditions would be potentially favorable for lake effect precipitation, resulting in mixed snow-rain conditions. The long term forecast from the Buffalo office of the National Weather Service (NWS), as well as the Environment Canada discussion, both indicated possible LESs, but predicted that accumulations would be minimal.
By October 9, however, forecasters became concerned, given the high snow fall rates typical of snow squalls, accumulations would be possible even with temperatures above the freezing mark.
The Buffalo NWS and associated weather offices in the U.S and Canada did not issue any special advisories or make significant mention of the possibility of a major snow fall event until early afternoon on October 11. The NWS Buffalo issued a special advisory for the possibility of LES with minor accumulations of less than 2 inches (5.1 cm). Environment Canada followed suit issuing a special weather advisory for Canadian areas which would also be affected.
The warm front associated with the developing low pressure system brought rain and thunderstorms to much of western New York and southern Ontario since the early morning hours of the 11th. The quickly approaching cold front passed the Port Colborne reporting station in Ontario at 11:35 pm EST October 11 and the Buffalo Airport reporting station at 12:46 am EST October 12. With the passage of the cold front, polar continental air began to flood in behind it, and by 3:30 am EST, a lake effect squall began to form over Lake Erie in the strong westerly winds. The first lake effect rain was reported at 3:54 am EST at the Buffalo Airport.
The morning of October 12 saw the first deep concern among forecasters that a large snow fall event was possible. Indications at the time were still mainly that of a rainfall event with ice pellets and some wet snow mixed in. Towards the afternoon of the October 12, a warning was issued by the NWS Buffalo for the possibility of one to six inches of wet snow. Environment Canada also released a similar warning, advising the public that conditions like those found in typical winter LESs were possible, although only minor accumulation was expected, if any.
The first reports of ice in the form of small hail and ice pellets were reported at the Buffalo Airport at 12:14 pm, the temperature at the time was 41°F (5°C) after which it fell to 37°F (3°C) by 1:00 pm and 36°F (2°C) by 1:38 pm. Then at 1:51 pm, the first rain-snow mix was reported, and by 2:09 pm the rain had changed over entirely to snow, with the temperature dropping to 33.8°F (1°C) by 2:13 pm. This prompted the NWS in Buffalo to issue a LES warning at 2:36 pm for Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie and Genesee counties. The warning, which would become effective as of 8:00 pm through to 6:00 am, called for one to three inches of snow, with possible accumulations of up to 6 inches (150 mm) well inland; the warning also made specific mention of possible tree damage and power outages.
The changeover to snow resulted from increased mixing within the squall; as colder air continued to flood in from the west, the atmosphere continued to destabilize vertically as the temperature difference between the lake water and the air several kilometers above grew larger. This allowed the squall to grow vertically in height and achieve much faster updraft speeds. At the 2:54 pm, radar indicated the first 20,000 ft (6,100 m) echo-top; at the same time, lightning was detected.
Despite heavy snow at times, accumulation was limited to grassy areas and locations which were not in direct contact with the ground, such as tree branches and power lines. The first notable ground accumulations started to occur just after 4:54 pm, when snow fall rates jumped to 1 in/hr (2.5 cm/hr) within thunderstorms inside the squall. At 6:48 pm, the NWS decided to update the LES warning, making it effective immediately and emphasizing extensive tree damage and the loss of power was imminent. By 8:00 pm, numerous reports of downed trees and power lines, and other damage began to flood the NWS Buffalo offices; by this time 3 in (7 cm) had accumulated on the ground.
As much as 24 inches fell in the Buffalo area, but in the nearby greater Toronto area, there was no storm at all.
Read more about this topic: Lake Storm "Aphid"
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