Possible Climate Change Impact
Mexico is prone to several weather events including hurricanes on both Pacific and Caribbean coasts. Hurricanes contribute to recharge surface and groundwater reservoirs with increases water supply for cities, irrigation and electricity generation. Hurricanes pose also a threat to service delivery, infrastructure and ultimately to ecosystems and human life. This situation is aggravated by deforestation upstream as well as human settlements located in flood prone areas.
With more than 85% of the Mexican land area defined as arid or semi-arid and a highly variable inter annual rainfall Mexico is also prone to droughts, especially in the northern areas. The most severe droughts in Mexico in recent decades coincide with the variations in Pacific sea-surface temperatures associated with El Niño. The economic and social and environmental impacts of droughts in Mexico are notable. In 1996, four years of below normal rainfall produced farms losses estimated at US$1 billion and interstate political between Sonora and Sinaloa.
Climate change will produce a decrease in water flow and an increase on water demand due to increasing temperature, decreasing rainfall and more extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and La Niña.
The IPCC estimates an increase in temperatures between 1 and 6 degrees Celsius. By 2050, the Mexican Institute of Water Technology expects a 7-12% decrease in precipitation in the southern basins, 3% in the Mexican Golf basin, and 11% in the central basing. Precipitation is estimated to continue decreasing over the next 50 years. A diminished river flow will also contribute to higher evapotranspiration. There is also expected to see an increase on 5 category hurricanes.
During some El Niño/La Niña years, winter precipitation may be so great that stream flow and water levels in dams may exceed those observed during summer. In contrast, summer droughts during these events can lead to serious deficits in reservoir levels and in rain-fed maize production. In Mexico during 1997, the estimated costs of climate anomalies associated with El Niño were 900 million US dollars, particularly in agricultural activities, when 20,000 square kilometres (5 million acres) were affected by a severe drought.
Read more about this topic: Irrigation In Mexico
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