Opinion Polls
The parties maintained their results from the 2007 general election for about eighteen months afterwards, with little change in polling figures. Fianna Fáil enjoyed a small bounce after the election of Brian Cowen as Taoiseach, succeeding Bertie Ahern, in May 2008.
Fine Gael took the lead in opinion polls after the October 2008 budget, which included tax increases and spending cuts to address the growing financial crisis. A second emergency budget in April 2009 continued the downward trend in the popularity of the government parties, with Labour now capturing the gains from disaffected Fianna Fáil supporters. Two polls in the first half of 2009 showed Fianna Fáil coming third, behind both Fine Gael and Labour. Most polls between the 2009 local elections and the summer of 2010 showed Fine Gael far ahead in first place, around the mid-30s, with Fianna Fáil in the mid-20s and Labour in the low 20s.
An Irish Times poll on 11 June 2010 gave Labour an unprecedented 32%, ahead of Fine Gael on 28% and Fianna Fáil on 17%. This surprise result was followed by the unsuccessful leadership challenge by Fine Gael deputy leader Richard Bruton against Enda Kenny; a period of instability followed, during which Labour challenged Fine Gael for first place in the polls.
As the economic crisis continued to worsen in late 2010, Fianna Fáil fell below 20% support, and did not recover from this in any opinion polls taken before the election. In November 2010, the EU/IMF rescue, followed by an historic defeat at the Donegal South–West by-election, marked a new period in opinion polling. Fianna Fáil and the Green Party fell to unprecedented lows, with improvements for Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and independent candidates, and a decline in Labour's position. Fine Gael took a strong lead in polling, with Labour safely in second place, while Fianna Fáil struggled to maintain third place, just ahead of Sinn Féin and independents, all polling in the low teens.
As the election campaign began in February, Fine Gael enjoyed a surge at the expense of the other parties. Results in the high 30s suggested that Fine Gael could form a government on its own, rather than with its traditional coalition partners in the Labour Party. However, the exit poll taken on election night, and the subsequent results on the following days, showed an eleventh-hour fall in Fine Gael support to the mid-30s, the benefits of which seemed to accrue to Fianna Fáil and Independents.
Polling for parliamentary represented parties is as such:
| Date | Source | Polling Agency | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour Party | Green Party | Sinn Féin | Ind./Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-02-27 !25 February 2011 | General election | N/A | 17.4% | 36.1% | 19.4% | 1.8% | 9.9% | 15.4% |
| 2011-02-26 !26 February 2011 | RTÉ exit poll | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 15.1% | 36.1% | 20.5% | 2.7% | 10.1% | 15.5% |
| 2011-02-23 !23 February 2011 | Paddy Power | RED C | 16% | 40% | 18% | 3% | 10% | 14% |
| 2011-02-23 !23 February 2011 | Irish Independent | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 14% | 38% | 20% | 1% | 11% | 16% |
| 2011-02-21 !21 February 2011 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 16% | 37% | 19% | 2% | 11% | 15% |
| 2011-02-20 !20 February 2011 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 16% | 39% | 17% | 2% | 12% | 14% |
| 2011-01-20 !20 February 2011 | Sunday Independent | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 16% | 37% | 20% | 1% | 12% | 14% |
| 2011-02-17 !17 February 2011 | Irish Daily Star | OI Research | 17% | 39% | 18% | 2% | 10% | 14% |
| 2011-02-16 !16 February 2011 | Irish Independent | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 12% | 38% | 23% | 1% | 10% | 16% |
| 2011-02-13 !13 February 2011 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 15% | 38% | 20% | 3% | 10% | 14% |
| 2011-02-06 !6 February 2011 | The Sunday Business Post. | RED C | 17% | 35% | 22% | 2% | 13% | 11% |
| 2011-02-03 !3 February 2011 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 15% | 33% | 24% | 1% | 12% | 15% |
| 2011-02-02 !2 February 2011 | Paddy Power | RED C | 18% | 37% | 19% | 2% | 12% | 11% |
| 2011-02-02 !2 February 2011 | Irish Independent | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 16% | 30% | 24% | 1% | 13% | 15% |
| 2011-01-30 !30 January 2011 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 16% | 33% | 21% | 2% | 13% | 15% |
| 2011-01-30 !30 January 2011 | Sunday Independent | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 16% | 34% | 24% | 1% | 10% | 15% |
| 2011-01-07 !7 January 2011 | Paddy Power | RED C | 14% | 35% | 21% | 4% | 14% | 12% |
| 2010-12-19 !19 December 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 17% | 34% | 23% | 2% | 14% | 10% |
| 2010-12-16 !16 December 2010 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 17% | 30% | 25% | 2% | 15% | 11% |
| 2010-12-03 !3 December 2010 | The Irish Sun | RED C | 13% | 32% | 24% | 3% | 16% | 11% |
| 2010-11-21 !21 November 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 17% | 33% | 27% | 3% | 11% | 8% |
| 2010-10-24 !24 October 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 18% | 32% | 27% | 4% | 9% | 10% |
| 2010-09-30 !30 September 2010 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 24% | 24% | 33% | 2% | 8% | 9% |
| 2010-09-26 !26 September 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 31% | 23% | 3% | 10% | 9% |
| 2010-09-23 !23 September 2010 | TV3 News | Millward Brown Lansdowne | 22% | 30% | 35% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| 2010-06-27 !27 June 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 33% | 27% | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| 2010-06-11 !11 June 2010 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 17% | 28% | 32% | 3% | 9% | 11% |
| 2010-05-30 !30 May 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 30% | 22% | 5% | 10% | 9% |
| 2010-05-02 !2 May 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 23% | 33% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
| 2010-03-28 !28 March 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 35% | 17% | 5% | 10% | 9% |
| 2010-02-28 !28 February 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 27% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 9% | 8% |
| 2010-02-13 !13 February 2010 | Irish Independent | Millward Brown IMS | 27% | 34% | 19% | 2% | 8% | 10% |
| 2010-01-31 !31 January 2010 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 27% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 8% | 9% |
| 2010-01-22 !22 January 2010 | The Irish Times | MRBI Ipsos MRBI | 22% | 32% | 24% | 3% | 8% | 11% |
| 2009-11-22 !22 November 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 23% | 36% | 17% | 5% | 10% | 9% |
| 2009-10-25 !25 October 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 25% | 35% | 19% | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2009-09-27 !27 September 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 35% | 18% | 4% | 8% | 11% |
| 2009-09-26 !26 September 2009 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 20% | 31% | 25% | 4% | 9% | 11% |
| 2009-09-13 !13 September 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 33% | 19% | 5% | 8% | 11% |
| 2009-09-03 !3 September 2009 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 17% | 34% | 24% | 3% | 10% | 12% |
| 2009-06-05 !5 June 2009 | European election | N/A | 24.1% | 29.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 11.2% | 19.7% |
| 2009-06-05 !5 June 2009 | Local elections | N/A | 25.4% | 32.2% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 7.4% | 18.0% |
| 2009-05-31 !31 May 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 21% | 34% | 18% | 4% | 10% | 13% |
| 2009-05-29 !29 May 2009 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 20% | 36% | 23% | 3% | 8% | 10% |
| 2009-05-17 !17 May 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 24% | 34% | 18% | 5% | 7% | 12% |
| 2009-05-15 !15 May 2009 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 21% | 38% | 20% | 3% | 9% | 10% |
| 2009-04-26 !26 April 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 23% | 33% | 19% | 7% | 8% | 10% |
| 2009-03-29 !29 March 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 28% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 7% | 10% |
| 2009-03-01 !1 March 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 23% | 30% | 22% | 6% | 11% | 8% |
| 2009-02-27 !27 February 2009 | Irish Independent | Millward Brown IMS | 25% | 30% | 22% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
| 2009-02-13 !13 February 2009 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 22% | 32% | 24% | 4% | 9% | 9% |
| 2009-02-01 !1 February 2009 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 28% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 8% |
| 2008-11-23 !23 November 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 30% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 8% |
| 2008-11-14 !14 November 2008 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 27% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| 2008-10-26 !26 October 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 26% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 10% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-09-21 !21 September 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 36% | 28% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 11% (PDs 3%) |
| 2008-07-27 !27 July 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 40% | 24% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% (PDs 1%) |
| 2008-06-22 !22 June 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 40% | 25% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-06-07 !7 June 2008 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 42% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 7% (PDs 1%) |
| 2008-05-25 !25 May 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 38% | 29% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 8% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-05-16 !16 May 2008 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 42% | 26% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 7% (PDs 1%) |
| 2008-04-27 !27 April 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 38% | 29% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 8% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-03-30 !30 March 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 35% | 30% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 8% (PDs 1%) |
| 2008-03-02 !2 March 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 37% | 31% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 7% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-01-27 !27 January 2008 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 36% | 32% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 6% (PDs 2%) |
| 2008-01-25 !25 January 2008 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 34% | 31% | 12% | 6% | 8% | 9% (PDs 3%) |
| 2007-11-25 !25 November 2007 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 32% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 9% (PDs 2%) |
| 2007-11-02 !2 November 2007 | The Irish Times | MRBI TNS-MRBI | 33% | 31% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 9% (PDs 2%) |
| 2007-10-28 !28 October 2007 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 39% | 27% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% (PDs 2%) |
| 2007-09-23 !23 September 2007 | The Sunday Business Post | RED C | 40% | 27% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 9% (PDs 3%) |
| 2007-05-24 !24 May 2007 | General election | N/A | 41.5% | 27.3% | 10.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.4% (PDs 2.7%) |
Read more about this topic: Irish General Election, 2011
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