Irish General Election, 2011 - Opinion Polls

Opinion Polls

The parties maintained their results from the 2007 general election for about eighteen months afterwards, with little change in polling figures. Fianna Fáil enjoyed a small bounce after the election of Brian Cowen as Taoiseach, succeeding Bertie Ahern, in May 2008.

Fine Gael took the lead in opinion polls after the October 2008 budget, which included tax increases and spending cuts to address the growing financial crisis. A second emergency budget in April 2009 continued the downward trend in the popularity of the government parties, with Labour now capturing the gains from disaffected Fianna Fáil supporters. Two polls in the first half of 2009 showed Fianna Fáil coming third, behind both Fine Gael and Labour. Most polls between the 2009 local elections and the summer of 2010 showed Fine Gael far ahead in first place, around the mid-30s, with Fianna Fáil in the mid-20s and Labour in the low 20s.

An Irish Times poll on 11 June 2010 gave Labour an unprecedented 32%, ahead of Fine Gael on 28% and Fianna Fáil on 17%. This surprise result was followed by the unsuccessful leadership challenge by Fine Gael deputy leader Richard Bruton against Enda Kenny; a period of instability followed, during which Labour challenged Fine Gael for first place in the polls.

As the economic crisis continued to worsen in late 2010, Fianna Fáil fell below 20% support, and did not recover from this in any opinion polls taken before the election. In November 2010, the EU/IMF rescue, followed by an historic defeat at the Donegal South–West by-election, marked a new period in opinion polling. Fianna Fáil and the Green Party fell to unprecedented lows, with improvements for Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and independent candidates, and a decline in Labour's position. Fine Gael took a strong lead in polling, with Labour safely in second place, while Fianna Fáil struggled to maintain third place, just ahead of Sinn Féin and independents, all polling in the low teens.

As the election campaign began in February, Fine Gael enjoyed a surge at the expense of the other parties. Results in the high 30s suggested that Fine Gael could form a government on its own, rather than with its traditional coalition partners in the Labour Party. However, the exit poll taken on election night, and the subsequent results on the following days, showed an eleventh-hour fall in Fine Gael support to the mid-30s, the benefits of which seemed to accrue to Fianna Fáil and Independents.

Polling for parliamentary represented parties is as such:

Date Source Polling Agency Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Party Green Party Sinn Féin Ind./Others
2011-02-27 !25 February 2011 General election N/A 17.4% 36.1% 19.4% 1.8% 9.9% 15.4%
2011-02-26 !26 February 2011 RTÉ exit poll Millward Brown Lansdowne 15.1% 36.1% 20.5% 2.7% 10.1% 15.5%
2011-02-23 !23 February 2011 Paddy Power RED C 16% 40% 18% 3% 10% 14%
2011-02-23 !23 February 2011 Irish Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne 14% 38% 20% 1% 11% 16%
2011-02-21 !21 February 2011 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 16% 37% 19% 2% 11% 15%
2011-02-20 !20 February 2011 The Sunday Business Post RED C 16% 39% 17% 2% 12% 14%
2011-01-20 !20 February 2011 Sunday Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne 16% 37% 20% 1% 12% 14%
2011-02-17 !17 February 2011 Irish Daily Star OI Research 17% 39% 18% 2% 10% 14%
2011-02-16 !16 February 2011 Irish Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne 12% 38% 23% 1% 10% 16%
2011-02-13 !13 February 2011 The Sunday Business Post RED C 15% 38% 20% 3% 10% 14%
2011-02-06 !6 February 2011 The Sunday Business Post. RED C 17% 35% 22% 2% 13% 11%
2011-02-03 !3 February 2011 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 15% 33% 24% 1% 12% 15%
2011-02-02 !2 February 2011 Paddy Power RED C 18% 37% 19% 2% 12% 11%
2011-02-02 !2 February 2011 Irish Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne 16% 30% 24% 1% 13% 15%
2011-01-30 !30 January 2011 The Sunday Business Post RED C 16% 33% 21% 2% 13% 15%
2011-01-30 !30 January 2011 Sunday Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne 16% 34% 24% 1% 10% 15%
2011-01-07 !7 January 2011 Paddy Power RED C 14% 35% 21% 4% 14% 12%
2010-12-19 !19 December 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 17% 34% 23% 2% 14% 10%
2010-12-16 !16 December 2010 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 17% 30% 25% 2% 15% 11%
2010-12-03 !3 December 2010 The Irish Sun RED C 13% 32% 24% 3% 16% 11%
2010-11-21 !21 November 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 17% 33% 27% 3% 11% 8%
2010-10-24 !24 October 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 18% 32% 27% 4% 9% 10%
2010-09-30 !30 September 2010 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 24% 24% 33% 2% 8% 9%
2010-09-26 !26 September 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 31% 23% 3% 10% 9%
2010-09-23 !23 September 2010 TV3 News Millward Brown Lansdowne 22% 30% 35% 2% 4% 8%
2010-06-27 !27 June 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 33% 27% 2% 8% 6%
2010-06-11 !11 June 2010 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 17% 28% 32% 3% 9% 11%
2010-05-30 !30 May 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 30% 22% 5% 10% 9%
2010-05-02 !2 May 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 23% 33% 24% 6% 6% 8%
2010-03-28 !28 March 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 35% 17% 5% 10% 9%
2010-02-28 !28 February 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 27% 34% 17% 5% 9% 8%
2010-02-13 !13 February 2010 Irish Independent Millward Brown IMS 27% 34% 19% 2% 8% 10%
2010-01-31 !31 January 2010 The Sunday Business Post RED C 27% 34% 17% 5% 8% 9%
2010-01-22 !22 January 2010 The Irish Times MRBI Ipsos MRBI 22% 32% 24% 3% 8% 11%
2009-11-22 !22 November 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 23% 36% 17% 5% 10% 9%
2009-10-25 !25 October 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 25% 35% 19% 3% 9% 9%
2009-09-27 !27 September 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 35% 18% 4% 8% 11%
2009-09-26 !26 September 2009 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 20% 31% 25% 4% 9% 11%
2009-09-13 !13 September 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 33% 19% 5% 8% 11%
2009-09-03 !3 September 2009 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 17% 34% 24% 3% 10% 12%
2009-06-05 !5 June 2009 European election N/A 24.1% 29.1% 13.9% 1.9% 11.2% 19.7%
2009-06-05 !5 June 2009 Local elections N/A 25.4% 32.2% 14.7% 2.3% 7.4% 18.0%
2009-05-31 !31 May 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 21% 34% 18% 4% 10% 13%
2009-05-29 !29 May 2009 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 20% 36% 23% 3% 8% 10%
2009-05-17 !17 May 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 24% 34% 18% 5% 7% 12%
2009-05-15 !15 May 2009 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 21% 38% 20% 3% 9% 10%
2009-04-26 !26 April 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 23% 33% 19% 7% 8% 10%
2009-03-29 !29 March 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 28% 31% 17% 7% 7% 10%
2009-03-01 !1 March 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 23% 30% 22% 6% 11% 8%
2009-02-27 !27 February 2009 Irish Independent Millward Brown IMS 25% 30% 22% 5% 7% 10%
2009-02-13 !13 February 2009 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 22% 32% 24% 4% 9% 9%
2009-02-01 !1 February 2009 The Sunday Business Post RED C 28% 33% 14% 8% 9% 8%
2008-11-23 !23 November 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 30% 35% 14% 5% 8% 8%
2008-11-14 !14 November 2008 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 27% 34% 14% 4% 8% 13%
2008-10-26 !26 October 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 26% 33% 15% 6% 10% 10% (PDs 2%)
2008-09-21 !21 September 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 36% 28% 9% 7% 9% 11% (PDs 3%)
2008-07-27 !27 July 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 40% 24% 10% 9% 9% 8% (PDs 1%)
2008-06-22 !22 June 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 40% 25% 10% 7% 10% 8% (PDs 2%)
2008-06-07 !7 June 2008 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 42% 23% 15% 5% 8% 7% (PDs 1%)
2008-05-25 !25 May 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 38% 29% 10% 8% 7% 8% (PDs 2%)
2008-05-16 !16 May 2008 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 42% 26% 15% 4% 6% 7% (PDs 1%)
2008-04-27 !27 April 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 38% 29% 10% 8% 7% 8% (PDs 2%)
2008-03-30 !30 March 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 35% 30% 10% 8% 9% 8% (PDs 1%)
2008-03-02 !2 March 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 37% 31% 10% 7% 8% 7% (PDs 2%)
2008-01-27 !27 January 2008 The Sunday Business Post RED C 36% 32% 10% 7% 9% 6% (PDs 2%)
2008-01-25 !25 January 2008 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 34% 31% 12% 6% 8% 9% (PDs 3%)
2007-11-25 !25 November 2007 The Sunday Business Post RED C 32% 31% 13% 9% 7% 9% (PDs 2%)
2007-11-02 !2 November 2007 The Irish Times MRBI TNS-MRBI 33% 31% 15% 5% 7% 9% (PDs 2%)
2007-10-28 !28 October 2007 The Sunday Business Post RED C 39% 27% 10% 7% 8% 9% (PDs 2%)
2007-09-23 !23 September 2007 The Sunday Business Post RED C 40% 27% 11% 7% 6% 9% (PDs 3%)
2007-05-24 !24 May 2007 General election N/A 41.5% 27.3% 10.1% 4.7% 6.9% 9.4% (PDs 2.7%)

Read more about this topic:  Irish General Election, 2011

Famous quotes containing the words opinion and/or polls:

    Roughly speaking, any man with energy and enthusiasm ought to be able to bring at least a dozen others round to his opinion in the course of a year no matter how absurd that opinion might be. We see every day in politics, in business, in social life, large masses of people brought to embrace the most revolutionary ideas, sometimes within a few days. It is all a question of getting hold of them in the right way and working on their weak points.
    Aleister Crowley (1875–1947)

    The total collapse of the public opinion polls shows that this country is in good health. A country that developed an airtight system of finding out in advance what was in people’s minds would be uninhabitable.
    —E.B. (Elwyn Brooks)