Example
Consider the simple influence diagram representing a situation where a decision-maker is planning her vacation.
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- There is 1 decision node (Vacation Activity), 2 uncertainty nodes (Weather Condition, Weather Forecast), and 1 value node (Satisfaction).
- There are 2 functional arcs (ending in Satisfaction), 1 conditional arc (ending in Weather Forecast), and 1 informational arc (ending in Vacation Activity).
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- Functional arcs ending in Satisfaction indicate that Satisfaction is a utility function of Weather Condition and Vacation Activity. In other words, her satisfaction can be quantified if she knows what the weather is like and what her choice of activity is. (Note that she does not value Weather Forecast directly)
- Conditional arc ending in Weather Forecast indicates her belief that Weather Forecast and Weather Condition can be dependent.
- Informational arc ending in Vacation Activity indicates that she will only know Weather Forecast, not Weather Condition, when making her choice. In other words, actual weather will be known after she makes her choice, and only forecast is what she can count on at this stage.
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- It also follows semantically, for example, that Vacation Activity is independent on (irrelevant to) Weather Condition given Weather Forecast is known.
Read more about this topic: Influence Diagram
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