Indian Nuclear Energy Forecasts
Kakrapar Kalpakkam BARC Narora New Delhi Rajasthan Tarapur Jaitapur Koodankulam Atomic Power Stations in India (view)Active plants
Plants under construction
On the basis of the three-stage plan and assuming optimistic development times, some extravagant predictions about nuclear power have been made over the years:
Bhabha announced that there would be 8,000 MW of nuclear power in the country by 1980. As the years progressed, these predictions were to increase. By 1962, the prediction was that nuclear energy would generate 20–25,000 MW by 1987, and by 1969, the AEC predicted that by 2000 there would be 43,500 MW of nuclear generating capacity. All of this was before a single unit of nuclear electricity was produced in the country. Reality was quite different. Installed capacity in 1979–80 was about 600 MW, about 950 MW in 1987, and 2720 MW in 2000.
In 2007, after five decades of sustained and generous government financial support, nuclear power’s capacity was just 3,310 MW, less than 3 percent of India’s total power generation capacity.
The Integrated Energy Policy of India estimates the share of nuclear power in the total primary energy mix to be between 4% to 6.4% in various scenarios by the year 2031-32. A study by the DAE, estimates that the nuclear energy share will be about 8.6% by the year 2032 and 16.6% by the year 2052. The possible nuclear power capacity beyond the year 2020 has been estimated by DAE is shown in the table. The 63 GW expected by 2032 will be achieved by setting up 16 indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR), of which ten is to be based on reprocessed uranium. Out of the 63 GW, about 40 GW will be generated through the imported Light Water Reactors (LWR), made possible after the NSG waiver.
| Year | Pessimistic (GWe) | Optimistic (GWe) |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 48 | 63 |
| 2040 | 104 | 131 |
| 2050 | 208 | 275 |
Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh stated in 2009 that the nation could generate up to 470 GW of power by 2050 if it managed the three-stage program well. "This will sharply reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and will be a major contribution to global efforts to combat climate change", he reportedly said. According to plan, 30% of the Indian electricity in 2050 will be generated from thorium based reactors. Indian nuclear scientists estimate that the country could produce 500 GWe for at least four centuries using just the country’s economically extractable thorium reserves.
Read more about this topic: India's Three Stage Nuclear Power Programme
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