Probability
This question is twofold. On the one hand it can be interpreted to mean, "Will a cure (or program of effective treatments) for aging ever be developed?" while on the other hand it could mean "Will the effective treatment of aging become available soon enough for those alive today to take advantage of it?" The answer to the first question is conditional on medical advancement: if medical science continues to advance in the fields of biogerontology and bioengineering, then some people hope the answer is "yes, that it will happen eventually, excepting if some event or series of events were to prevent the further advance of biological science" (see Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth and the Doomsday Clock). Many scientists researching this area at the moment do not agree. They see a problem in not just individual diseases but in failure of repair mechanisms alluded to above in the discussion of thermodynamic considerations.
While science is constantly advancing and technology is becoming ever more sophisticated, the human body and mind are finitely complex and have not changed significantly in one hundred thousand years, and the aging process has not, in that time, become any more damaging (which, in short, is why we live three times as long on average in the twenty-first century as we did ten thousand years before).
The answer to the second question depends on two factors: the first being how fast medical science advances, and the second being how well each person takes care of himself (such as utilizing the best available life extension technology or not, and generally eating and behaving in a healthful and non-degrading way), both of which may affect whether or not a given person is still alive when the cure (or set of treatments) becomes available. This strategy is captured in the subtitle "Live Long Enough to Live Forever" of the popular life extension book Fantastic Voyage, by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, M.D.
The second factor to the second question hinges on the first factor - no amount of healthy living will enable somebody alive today to reach the point of indefinite lifespan if medical science is curtailed significantly, or if aging turns out to be massively more complex than currently believed. However, if biomedical gerontology continues to improve, if somatic genetic engineering becomes safe and effective (and is not banned by opponents) within the relatively near future, it may be conceivable for some of those now alive to attain indefinite lifespans.
According to biogerontologist Marios Kyriazis, indefinite lifespans will become possible (even inevitable) because of inherent properties of natural laws governing human evolution. Kyriazis believes that as humanity is enhanced by technology, human evolution by natural selection will become redundant, and humans will continue to evolve through an indefinitely-long process of self-development. This process will necessitate the elimination of death due to aging.
Read more about this topic: Indefinite Lifespan
Famous quotes containing the word probability:
“Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be “too clever by half.” The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters.”
—John Major (b. 1943)
“The source of Pyrrhonism comes from failing to distinguish between a demonstration, a proof and a probability. A demonstration supposes that the contradictory idea is impossible; a proof of fact is where all the reasons lead to belief, without there being any pretext for doubt; a probability is where the reasons for belief are stronger than those for doubting.”
—Andrew Michael Ramsay (1686–1743)
“Liberty is a blessing so inestimable, that, wherever there appears any probability of recovering it, a nation may willingly run many hazards, and ought not even to repine at the greatest effusion of blood or dissipation of treasure.”
—David Hume (1711–1776)