Probability Analysis of I Ching Divination
Most analyses on the probabilities of either the coin method or yarrow stalk method agree on the probabilities for each method. Examples are
- http://www.dentato.it/iching/, an alternative calculation of the yarrow stalk probabilities;
- OrganicDesign:I Ching / Divination, explains the traditional probabilities of 1,3,5,7 out of 16.
The coin method varies significantly from the yarrow stalk method in that it gives the same probability to both the moving lines and to both the static lines, which is not the case in the yarrow stalk method. The calculation of frequencies (generally believed to be the same as described in the simplified method using 16 objects in this article) using the yarrow stalk method, however, embodies a further error, in the opinion of Andrew Kennedy, which is that of including the selection of zero as a quantity for either hand. The traditional method was designed expressly to produce four numbers without using zero. Kennedy shows, that by not allowing the user to select zero for either hand or a single stick for the right hand (this stick is moved to the left hand before counting by fours and so also leaves a zero in the right hand), the hexagram frequencies change significantly for a daily user of the oracle. He has produced an amendment to the simplified method of using 16 colored objects described in this article as follows,
take 38 objects of which
- 8 of one color = moving yang
- 2 of another color = moving yin
- 11 of another color = static yang
- 17 of another color = static yin
This arrangement produces Kennedy's calculated frequencies within 0.1%
Read more about this topic: I Ching Divination
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