Meteorological History
On September 6 a non-tropical low over the northern Bahamas became more organized and formed into Tropical Depression Sixteen between Andros and Grand Bahama. Shortly after forming the depression moved over Grand Bahama and moved north parallel to the Florida coastline. The computer models initially predicted two distinct possibilities for the storm's future with some models indicating the storm would cross over Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico while others indicated that it would stay offshore and move to the northeast. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center followed the first set of guidance, though with low confidence. The storm strengthened to become Tropical Storm Ophelia early on September 7 and became a hurricane briefly the next day.
From September 9 to September 11, Ophelia fluctuated in strength, being downgraded to a tropical storm only to regain hurricane intensity three more times; during this time it moved very slowly and erratically in a northeasterly direction. The NHC continued to struggle to predict Ophelia, with the forecasts generally calling for a landfall on the east coast of the United States. The forecasters indicated there was a possibility that Ophelia could strengthen further to Category 3 strength, though they felt this was unlikely. On September 12 the storm completed a clockwise loop, then adopted a more north-westerly motion towards North Carolina, while still moving only slowly and fitfully. It dropped below hurricane strength again when the inner core of convection collapsed, possibly due to passing over cooler water that it upwelled earlier in its track. Ophelia then regained hurricane strength over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. After the collapse of the inner core of convection, the hurricane acquired an unusually large eye over 115 miles (185 km) across and soon reached its peak strength with 85 mph (140 km/h) winds. The northern and western eyewall passed over the coastal areas of North Carolina throughout September 14–15, but the strongest winds remained offshore.
As Hurricane Ophelia moved past Cape Hatteras it turned to the east. Wind shear increased on September 16 and weakened Ophelia into a tropical storm for the last time. Ophelia turned to the northeast and brushed past Nantucket Island, Massachusetts the next day. As it approached Nova Scotia on September 17, the storm became extratropical but maintained its strength as it made landfall in the extreme eastern portion of the province. The extratropical storm passed over southern Newfoundland later that day and finally dissipated on September 23 in the North Sea.
Read more about this topic: Hurricane Ophelia (2005)
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