Hurricane Jose (1999) - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa on October 8. The system tracked westward and did not develop further until it was midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles on October 15. Dvorak satellite classifications began at 1200 UTC on October 17, and six hours later, the system developed into Tropical Depression Fourteen while located about 700 miles (1,100 km) east of the Windward Islands. Initially, the depression had well-defined upper-level outflow, though the low-level circulation was poorly defined. The depression continued to organize, with satellite imagery indicating banding features becoming more well-defined, as a result of an upper-level anticyclone and a westerly jet. It is estimated that the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose at 0600 UTC on October 18. The upgrade was due to impressive appearance on satellite imagery, mostly outflow and banding features, as well as satellite intensity estimates of winds reaching 40 mph (65 km/h).

Because there was no "immediately identifiable hindrances to further strengthening", intensity forecasts indicated Jose reaching hurricane status by late on October 19. Later that day, three computer models predicted that the anticyclone over Jose would move west-northwestward, causing the storm to potential strengthen to a major hurricane. However, the National Hurricane Center questioned these forecasts, as the same computer models predicted a similar scenario for Tropical Depression Twelve earlier that month. After t-numbers on the Dvorak scale reached 4.0 and a reconnaissance aircraft flight reported winds of 84 mph (135 km/h), it was estimated that Jose became a hurricane at 1800 UTC on October 19. Early on the following day, cloud tops reached temperatures as low as −121 °F (−85 °C) and the hurricane also developed an eye with a radius of about 34 miles (55 km).

At 0600 UTC on October 20, Jose attained its minimum barometric pressure of 979 mbar (28.9 inHg). Six hours later, the storm strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and reached its maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h). Although atmospheric conditions previously seemed favorable for further significant strengthening, water vapor imagery indicated that an upper-trough was extending from the western Caribbean Sea to the eastern Bahamas, this in turn induced wind shear on Jose. Jose weakened immediately after becoming a Category 2 hurricane and winds were 90 mph (150 km/h) when the storm made landfall in Antigua at 1600 UTC on October 21. The National Hurricane Center noted that weakening "may be temporary" and also predicted slow re-intensification. However, Jose instead continued to weaken and was only a tropical storm when it made landfall in Tortola at 1105 UTC on October 21. Under the influence of a large mid- to upper-tropospheric trough, Jose curved northward early on October 22, while located north of Puerto Rico. Around that time, the overall cloud pattern was "not impressive", though a large cluster of deep convection still has cloud tops with temperatures of −121 °F (−85 °C). Later on October 22, the storm began re-developing deep convection, though it still maintained a sheared system appearance.

The storm fully recurved to the northeast on October 22, while initially no significant change in intensity occurred. On the following day, the storm began to slowly restrengthen, although wind shear had further exposed the center. As a result, the National Hurricane Center no longer noted the possibility of Jose to re-intensify into a hurricane. Later on October 23, no further reconnaissance aircraft flights occurred, causing the National Hurricane Center to rely on satellite intensity estimates and surface observations. Jose began to significantly re-organize on October 24, with deep convection rapidly re-developing around the low-level circulation. Despite this, the National Hurricane Center noted that "the deep convection is poorly organized enough that strengthening is unlikely before extratropical transition in 36 hours". By 1200 UTC on October 24, the storm once again reached hurricane intensity. Shortly thereafter, Jose passed about 300 miles (480 km) east of Bermuda. After becoming a hurricane, no further intensification was predicted, as sea surface temperatures would soon decrease. Jose rapidly accelerated and quickly weakened back to a tropical storm by early on October 25. At 1200 UTC on that day, the storm transitioned into an extratropical cyclone while located south of Atlantic Canada. Six hours later, the extratropical remnants of Jose merged with a large mid-latitude low.