Hurricane Gordon (1994) - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

Widespread convection persisted in the southwestern Caribbean Sea during early November, which was enhanced by the passage of two tropical waves passing through the area. The second produced a low-level circulation just north of Panama early on November 6. Convection slowly organized as it drifted northwestward, and by 1200 UTC on November 7 the circulation displayed enough curvature to warrant initiating Dvorak technique estimates. Late the next day, convection became more concentrated, and based on surface observations and satellite estimates the National Hurricane Center estimates the system developed into Tropical Depression Twelve midday on November 8 while located a short distance off the southeast coast of Nicaragua.

The depression continued drifting northwestward, and initially limited upper-level outflow led to very slow organization. Its environment became more favorable, and by November 9 the system maintained banding features and increasingly defined outflow. Proximity to land prevented strengthening, and early on November 10 it made landfall near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Shortly thereafter, an upper-level trough turned the depression to the northeast, and the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Gordon after reaching open waters. Tracking slowly north-northeastward, the circulation of the cyclone was initially very broad, covering much of the western Caribbean Sea, and its combination with southwesterly vertical wind shear prevented significant strengthening. By November 12, the center was exposed due to the shear, though by later in the day the circulation became situated along the western edge of the deep convection. Early on November 13, Gordon struck Jamaica near Kingston as a minimal tropical storm, and accelerating northeastward the cyclone made landfall near Guantánamo Bay, Cuba later that day.

Around the time of Gordon crossing Jamaica, an upper-level trough spawned a low-level disturbance over the central Bahamas. From surface synoptic reports, the National Hurricane Center estimates Tropical Storm Gordon rapidly crossed Cuba and became the dominant system between Cuba and the Bahamas. However, other meteorologists believe Gordon dissipated after hitting Cuba, and that a second cyclone became the dominant system. A deep-layer ridge turned the storm to the west-northwest, and by November 14 the cloud pattern and surface wind field of Gordon resembled that of a subtropical cyclone, with little convection near and the strongest winds well-removed from the center. The storm paralleled the northern coast of Cuba, and Radiosonde indicated a largely cold-core system, with the exception of a mid-level warm air in its eastern semicircle. Early on November 15, Gordon began to re-acquire tropical characteristics, with a warm-core center re-developing near an area of deep convection. Later that day, the broad center crossed the Florida Keys near Key West. Deep convection continued to build and concentrate over the center, and the wind field contracted as it transitioned into a fully tropical cyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough, Gordon turned to the northeast and made landfall near Fort Myers, Florida on November 16 with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h).

Tropical Storm Gordon crossed the Florida peninsula in about nine hours, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean near Vero Beach. As it reached the Gulf Stream, a small but intense area of convection developed over the center, with winds increasing to 65 mph (105 km/h). On November 17 the thunderstorm activity was impacted by wind shear, which was expected to prevent further strengthening. However, Hurricane Hunters reported strong winds in excess of 90 mph (145 km/h) within the deep convection, and late on November 17 Gordon attained hurricane status while located about 245 miles (345 km) southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina; shortly thereafter the hurricane reached peak winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). Upon attaining hurricane status, the trough that had turned Gordon to the north surpassed the cyclone, resulting in the development of a mid-level ridge to its north. The ridge turned the hurricane sharply northwestward, and at the time Gordon was expected to cross the Outer Banks as a minimal hurricane. After passing about 90 miles (140 km) south of Cape Hatteras, Gordon turned to the south and south-southeast and weakened to a tropical storm. Encountering northwesterly wind shear and cooler, drier air, the cyclone steadily weakened as it lost much of its deep convection. On November 19, the storm turned to the southwest, and the next day Gordon deteriorated to tropical depression status as it curved westward. Early on November 20 Gordon moved ashore near Cape Canaveral, Florida as a minimal tropical cyclone; it turned northward into Georgia, and on November 21 Gordon dissipated over South Carolina.