Futures Techniques - Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis

Trend analysis is one of the most often used methods in forecasting. It aims to observe and register the past performance of a certain factor and project it into the future. It involves analysis of two groups of trends: quantitative, mainly based on statistical data, and qualitative, these are at large concerned with social, institutional, organisational and political patterns.

In the quantitative trend analysis data is plotted along a time axis, so that a simple curve can be established. Short term forecasting seems quite simple; it becomes more complex when the trend is extrapolated further into the future, as the number of dynamic forces that can change direction of the trend increases. This form of simple trend extrapolation helps to direct attention towards the forces, which can change the projected pattern.

A more elaborated curve that uses times series analysis can often reveal surprising historical and current data patterns. The qualitative trend analysis is one of the most demanding and creative methods in Futures Studies.

As trends never speak for themselves, the identification and description of patterns is partly empirical and partly creative activity. The most challenging part of qualitative trends analysis is identification of a tendency early, as recognition of a mature trend is “relatively useless” in influencing anyone’s behaviour.