Flip-flop (politics) - Exculpatory, Ameliorating and Aggravating Circumstances Affecting Public Reaction

Exculpatory, Ameliorating and Aggravating Circumstances Affecting Public Reaction

The circumstances surrounding the flip-flop and its larger context can be crucial factors in whether or not a politician is hurt or helped more by a change in position. "Long hailed as a conservative champion, Ronald Reagan could shrug off his support of a tax increase in 1982 to curb the budget deficits his 1981 tax cut had exacerbated," according to an analysis of flip-flopping in The New York Times. "Long suspect on the Republican right, George Bush faced a crippling 1992 primary challenge after abandoning his 'no new taxes' campaign pledge in the White House."

Kerry's perceived equivocation on the Iraq war damaged his 2004 campaign, according to both Democratic and Republican political operatives. "It spoke to a pattern of calculation and indecisiveness that make him look like a weak commander in chief compared to Bush", said Jonathan Prince, a strategist for 2008 presidential candidate John Edwards, Kerry's running mate in 2004. In the 2008 primary season, Edwards simply stated that "I was wrong" when he had voted in the U.S. Senate to authorize the Iraq War. "Progressives loved it because it was taking responsibility, not abdicating it," according to Prince.

United States commentator Jim Geraghty has written that politicians need to be allowed some leeway in changing their minds as the result of changing conditions. "I actually think that a candidate can even change his position in response to a changing political environment, as long as they're honest about it. 'The votes just aren't there, public support isn't there, so I have to put this proposal on the back burner for a while,' is a perfectly legitimate response to a difficult position." The same general point was made in 1988 by New York Times editorial columnist Tom Wicker, writing shortly after Dukakis' charge against Gephardt. Wicker commented that the accusation was not necessarily fair: "What's wrong with a Presidential candidate changing his position – though his opponents call it 'flip-flopping' – in order to improve his chances of winning? Nothing's wrong with it unless the flipper denies having done it," Wicker added that the charge can be "a tortured or dishonest interpretation of an opponent's record".

"here's a difference between changing your policy position and breaking a promise," John Dickerson, wrote in Slate online magazine. "Breaking a promise is a problem of a higher order than changing a policy position. Our mothers told us not to break promises "

James Pethokoukis, the "money and politics blogger" for U.S. News & World Report online, referring to 2008 presidential candidate John McCain, noted that in changing a position a candidate can "trot out that famous John Maynard Keynes line, 'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?'" The Keynes quote also has been mentioned by other commentators with regard to flip-flops, including James Broder, in a 2007 article in the International Herald-Tribune.